NH Hot Take (9:30pm Eastern)
Some thoughts based on incomplete results.
With 51% of the vote in, the basic order is as follows:
Of that list only the top three are above the 15% threshold and therefore the only ones likely to get delegates.
If this holds it strikes me as a huge win for Klobuchar and huge losses for Warren and especially Biden.
Recognizing that we have just gone through two small, unrepresentative states, I am struck at Mayor Pete’s success and Biden’s especially poor showing. While Sanders winning NH does not surprise, the fact that Biden lost both races badly really undercuts his electability aura.
I am especially struck that Buttigieg and Klobuchar are having more success in the moderate lane at the moment and that Warren’s traction in the more leftward lane has yet to materialize.
Using the expectation standard, Klobuchar is a big winner and Warren and Biden are both huge losers tonight.
Biden is likely to do poorly in Nevada. He will need an epic comeback in South Carolina to show the Super Tuesday voters that his electability narrative has any truth to it. He feels a bit toasty to me at the moment.
(Again: just a passing hot take, but these are interesting results to this point).