Biden in the Driver’s Seat
The Economist gives Joe Biden an 83% chance to win the Electoral College.
The elections forecast team at The Economist finds Joe Biden almost certain to win the popular vote and very, very likely to win enough Electoral College votes to win the presidency.
Unlike the national polling averages by 538 and RealClearPolitics, their model “combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict a range of outcomes.”
The current projected ranges:
That there’s still a 17% chance of Trump winning is frankly, bizarre, given how steady his disapproval ratings have been—and that was before the pandemic, economic collapse, and mass demonstrations in the streets. But that’s because so many states are up for grabs this year, at least according to their model:
- New Hampshire
- North Carolina
But the fact that Georgia and Texas are actually in play would seem very, very bad news for Trump.