Fox News Poll Shows Trump Losing To Top Democrats
A new poll shows Donald Trump losing to top Democrats in head-to-head races.
The same Fox News Poll that shows Joe Biden leading the Democratic field, also shows President Trump losing in a head-to-head matchup against the top Democratic contenders:
A Fox News poll released Thursday showed President Trump losing head-to-head matchups against four of the top Democratic presidential primary contenders.
The poll found Trump with 39 percent support among registered voters in head-to-head matchups against Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Kamala Harris (D-Calif.), and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.). The poll found Sanders beating Trump with 48 percent, Warren winning over Trump with 45 percent and Harris winning with 46 percent support.
Former Vice President Joe Biden, meanwhile, beat Trump in the theoretical matchup with 50 percent support among those surveyed, compared to Trump’s 38 percent.
Obviously, these head-to-head matchups don’t have very much predictive value in terms of what we’re likely to see on Election Day 2020. As of today, there are 441 days left between now and the General Election and anything can happen between now and then. It’s worth noting, for example, that there were polls in 2011 and even in early 2012 that appeared to show Mitt Romney beating President Obama in the then-upcoming 2012 election. As we all know, President Obama ended up winning that election rather handily.
Similarly, after the 2016 election, many people began doubting the polls altogether given the fact that pre-election polling seemed to indicate that Hillary Clinton would win rather easily. It’s important to note, though, that the national head-to-head polling ended up being fairly close to the final vote. The problem came in the state-level polling, in no small part because pollsters didn’t accurately predict the level of voter turnout or the demographic composition of the voters that did turn out. The polling at the national level was a different story, though, and accurately predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the national popular vote. Of course, that’s not how we determine the winner of Presidential elections.
In any case, while this and other head-to-head polling is far too premature to have any predictive value it does give us a strong indication of the state of the race for the White House. Additionally, it provides significant ammunition for the argument that the Biden campaign is making that the former Vice-President is the person best situated to beat the President in the General Election in 2020. Whether these numbers hold up or not is a different question that we’ll have to wait to get the answer to in the future.
I have a theory. I think when pollsters ask Dems who they’d vote for over Trump, they often answer tactically. IOW, ‘No on Harris’ may just be sending a message that the responder thinks Biden has a better shot and doesn’t want candidates who have less of a shot. Saying ‘I’d vote for any Dem’ is mush, picking one over another may feel clever and tactical. Especially with doubts about the electability of women candidates.
Those were outliers, however, and never by more than a couple of points. Obama was consistently ahead in the averages (such as RCP and HuffPost) apart from a brief period after the first debate in the fall of 2012. Trump, in contrast, has been consistently trailing Biden in literally every poll that has come out thus far, often by a significant margin, and he’s been generally trailing the other main Dems as well.
I agree with you that these polls are not predictive. But what we’re seeing now is clearly different from what we were seeing at a comparable point in 2011. There’s no question Trump is in a weaker position than Obama was at this point in his presidency.
Doug, this post of yours is why we we are going to start hearing rumblings from folks in the GOP who are considering running against President Trump. People are starting to see a bit of weakness on the part of President Trunp and when the predators smell fear they will come out to play.
I always felt it was dumb of the GOP to just let President Trump say relax folks, I have 2020 in the bag….there was always plenty of evidence that he did not but maybe people on the GOP side of the fence are starting to see this and will act accordingly.
There is also the little fact that as Kevin Drum pointed out in his 24hrs of Trump post today that our President is not only childish but perhaps needs to be spend some time in a room with rubber walls…it is not just the tin foil hat wearers who feel and notice that the man seems unwell.
I wonder if McConnell is breathing a sigh of relief that some in the GOP want to challenge President Trump because I would not want to be in the position of having to handle President Trump for another 4 years (just the thought of another 4 years of dealing with someone stuck in their terrible twos has to be exhausting).
I’m actually enjoying how pissed off El Cheeto Loco (Thanks, Kathy!) must be seeing these poll numbers. I guess that explains the nuclear-grade stupid shit flowing out of his mouth and onto the airwaves and his Twitter feed.
That said….I’ve never been more ashamed to be an American than I was last night when I first heard he had canceled his trip to Denmark because they wouldn’t sell off Greenland.