Will Predicts EC Landslide for Romney
Via the Daily Caller:
On this weekend’s broadcast of “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” on ABC, Will revealed his prediction and added a bonus surprise by saying traditional Democratic state Minnesota would go for Romney as well.
The number: 321-217.
I can understand predicting a Romney victory. After all, if Ohio goes to Mitt, that might be enough. What I do not understand is predicting a landslide in Romney’s direction unless one is sprinkling in more than a little hope into the equation or if one thinks that pollsters, as a class, have just gone off the rails in a profound and game-changing way.
Further, calling MN for Romney strikes me as more than a stretch. The RCP average has Obama as +5.8 and shows Romney never leading that average (or really being all that close) going back to May (when the chart states). Will even notes that Minnesota has gone Democratic for the last nine elections, but thinks that the marriage amendment on the ballot will give the election to Romney.
For what it is worth, Nate Silver puts the odds of an Obama win in Minnesota at 99%-1%. If Romney wins Minnesota it would be clear evidence of serious flaws in Silver’s methodology. Silver’s polling average has Obama at +7.2.
At the moment, however, I am sticking with Silver’s data over Will’s hunches. (The funny thing is, however, is that Silver will be excoriated if he gets MN wrong, but Will will likely receive no criticism at all about this guess—although perhaps this is fair: we all know that pundits are just guessing and so it really doesn’t mater…).