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Release Of Jobs Report Gives Birth To The Unemployment Truthers

Within minutes after the September Jobs Report was released, we began to notice a new phenomenon online. In response to a report that showed a weak 114,000 net jobs created and yet at the same time showed the U-3, the narrowest and most publicized of the Labor Department’s measures of the job market, falling by 0.3 of a point, some conservatives started to accuse the Obama Administration of cooking the books:

The release Friday of unexpectedly positive jobs numbers immediately touched off a conspiracy theory among conservatives, who suggested the data was being manipulated to benefit President Barack Obama’s reelection.

“Chicago style politics is at work here,” Florida GOP Rep. Allen West wrote on his Facebook page. “Somehow by manipulation of data we are all of a sudden below 8 percent unemployment, a month from the Presidential election. This is Orwellian to say the least and representative of Saul Alinsky tactics from the book ‘Rules for Radicals’- a must read for all who want to know how the left strategize.”

West added, “Trust the Obama administration? Sure, and the spontaneous reaction to a video caused the death of our Ambassador……and pigs fly.”

Other conservatives agreed and targeted the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which compiles the unemployment data.

“Either the Federal Reserve, which has its fingers on the pulse of every element of the economy, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics manufacturing survey report are grievously wrong or the number used to calculate the unemployment rate are wrong, or worse manipulated,” Americans for Limited Government declared in a press release. “Given that these numbers conveniently meet Obama’s campaign promises one month before the election, the conclusions are obvious.”

The group’s president, Rick Manning, quipped that Obama must have hired “infamous Iraqi Information Minister Baghdad Bob to calculate the unemployment rate. Anyone who takes this unemployment report serious is either naïve or a paid Obama campaign adviser.”

Conn Carroll, an editorial writer at the conservative Washington Examiner, had a slightly different theory.

“I don’t think BLS cooked numbers. I think a bunch of Dems lied about getting jobs. That would have same effect.” — Conn Carroll (@conncarroll) October 5, 2012

Market analyst Rick Santelli said on CNBC: “I told you they’d get it under 8 percent — they did! You can let America decide how they got it there.”

Newsbusters, a conservative media criticism website, said Santelli’s comments ”put a big question mark over the validity of the data.”

Labor Secretary Hilda Solis said it was “ludicrous” to suggest the data had been manipulated to boost Obama.

“I’m insulted when I hear that because we have a very professional civil service organization where you have top, top economists that work at the BLS,” Solis said on CNBS. “They’ve been doing these calculations. These are our best trained and best-skilled individuals working in the BLS, and it’s really ludicrous to hear that kind of statement.”

Even Jack Welch, the former Chairman of General Electric, joined in the denialism:

 

The Washington Examiner’s Conn Carroll had a completely different theory, he thinks people deliberately lied to the BLS:

 

Buzzfeed has also collected Tweets from others on the right repeating the idea that the drop in the U-3 numbers was some kind of conspiracy.

I’m sure by the end of the day, the idea that the unemployment numbers are fabrications will be the newest meme on the right. It won’t be embraced by everyone, of course, and you’re not going to see the Romney campaign or any Republican that is slightly more sane than Allen West repeat these allegations. Already we’ve seen conservatives like Philip Klein, Erick Erickson, and James Pethokoukis dismiss the allegations. Nonetheless, this latest conspiracy theory will make its way through the blogosphere and the Twitterverse in the exact same manner as the nonsense about polling did last week. The fact of the matter is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is a completely non-political wing of the Labor Department. Its employees are all career government officials with the exception of the Commissioner, and that office is currently empty because President Obama has yet to name a replacement for the former Commissioner. Additionally, the argument makes no sense if you have an idea how these numbers are used and how they are compiled:

The underlying data behind the BLS reports is also publicly released and used by analysts across the private sector and academia, meaning a conspiracy would have to survive scrutiny from trained economists of all political stripes.

Nor is there much time to cook the books at the top level if they wanted to.

“I worked for Secretary Hilda Solis and she didn’t know the job numbers until 8 a.m. on the day,” Stevenson said. “Which made my job very difficult, because I had to help her figure out what she was going to say when they were released.” The BLS releases the numbers publicly at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The idea that these people are engaged in a conspiracy to “cook the books” is simply absurd. After all, if they were going to do that, wouldn’t they have made the job creation numbers look better too?

None of this is to say that the BLS reports are gospel. They’ve been known to be off in the past, which is why the office issues revisions for previous month’s numbers for at least two months afterwards. Additionally, the practice of seasonally adjusting the numbers that go into making up the U-3 rate has been questioned in the past by some economists because it may not be accurately reflecting what’s going on in the economy. That’s not what these people are saying, though. They’re not calling the Bureau’s statistical methodology into question, they’re saying the the Bureau is quite simply lying, without any evidence to back that up. The BLS numbers may not be completely reliable, but if you’re going to argue that they’re entirely false, you’ve got to provide some evidence to support that, and they have none.

I already discussed one of the factors that likely explains the drop in U-3 despite the fact that only 114,000 jobs were created last month, and it lies in the fact that some 86,000 jobs were added to the figures for July and August. Over at National Review, Kevin Hassett provides another explanation: 

The report, of course, reveals the results of two surveys, one of households, one of establishments. The professional economists and the press usually emphasize the establishment survey because it is viewed as less volatile. The establishment survey was terrible. The 114,000 number of jobs created on net in September is well below the average for this year (146,000) and the average for last year (153,000). This is wholly consistent with the story that the economy is decelerating sharply as we head into the fall.

The household survey, on the other hand, portrays a September that was booming, far more so than could possibly be true given the other indicators. According to it, the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8 percent, with total employment jumping by a whopping 873,000. I wish it were true, but it will likely be a blip when we have a few more months of data.

University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers made a similar point in an interview with Talking Points Memo when he noted that, ”It’s not unusual — the household survey is a noisy measure, there’s no doubt about it, and that’s why most analysts rely more on the payroll survey.” So, basically, we’re talking about two completely different surveys, only one of which, the Household Survey, influences the U-3 rate. It also happens to be the more volatile of the two surveys, which is why there’s reason to expect that some of the gains reflected there may end up being wiped away by revisions during the coming months. That’s the reason for the discrepancy, not some vast conspiracy. But, then, we’re talking about people who seem to be finding conspiracies behind every rock these days so it’s not really surprising that they’d adopt this  completely unsupported theory.

Update: Ezra Klein goes into more detail about why the conspiracy theorists are wrong.

Update #2: Rick Moran is one conservative not buying the conspiracy theories.

Related Posts:

About Doug Mataconis
Doug holds a B.A. in Political Science from Rutgers University and J.D. from George Mason University School of Law. He joined the staff of OTB in May, 2010 and also writes at Below The Beltway. Follow Doug on Twitter | Facebook

Comments

  1. Jr says:

    This is hilarious to me.

    What the hell would career bureaucrats cook the numbers? It doesn’t matter whether Obama wins or loses, they will still have a job after January 20.

    The right is going to completely bonkers if Obama wins and it will be a glorious sight to see.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 19 Thumb down 2

  2. Jeremy R. says:

    Managing Editor, Washington Free Beacon: “SOROS!!”

    https://twitter.com/SonnyBunch/statuses/254209585517322240?tw_i=254209585517322240

    THEORY: George Soros hired 500k part-time hole-diggers/hole-filler-inners to artificially depress unemployment rate.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 2

  3. Curtis says:

    I am going to be so glad when this election is over and people will just calm the heck down.

    Not every single thing that happens in the universe should be viewed as to how it affects the presidential election. As I said in the first thread on this, truth is probably somewhere in the middle of the two surveys, but these both make recession very unlikely in the short and medium term. And we should all be grateful for that.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

  4. Eric Florack says:

    I don’t think anyone’s accusing the BLS of cooking the books.
    The issue is how the numbers are “reported”.
    And the response here also suggests a serous level of mistrust in this administration. And why would this administration want to tweak numbers in the final month before an election, do you suppose?

    Gee, this one’s hard.

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 56

  5. A says:

    I guess if Obama wins the argument will the be the election oversampled Democrats

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 38 Thumb down 0

  6. Jen says:

    “A bunch of Dems lied about getting jobs”? What is he thinking? If we are to go that conspiracy route, wouldn’t it be just as easy to suggest that anti-Obama business people lied about how many they hired in an effort to make the numbers look worse?

    This sort of silliness is a bit much, even in the context of the silly season.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 0

  7. Just Me says:

    I don’t believe they are cooking the books.

    I do believe the numbers don’t add up. I also am not convinced that somehow 7.8% unemployment means Obama is above criticism. There is a lot to criticize Obama for in this numbers-especially the fact that it appears people are replacing full time work with part time work. Food, gas and utilities are all higher than they were when Obama took office-if this is recovery I dread to see what the next recession look like.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 9

  8. Jr says:

    @Just MeFood, gas and utilities are all higher than they were when Obama took office

    No shit.

    We were coming out of the worst recession since the 1930′s. The only reason the recovery hasn’t been as robust is due to the public sector shedding jobs due to austerity and the economic slow down in Europe.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 1

  9. JeffC says:

    as the Obama campaign says every month … one months report should not be taken as a trend …

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 4

  10. JeffC says:

    Carters recession was much worse … and what public sector jobs shedding are you talking about ? we are at all time highs for public sector jobs …

    recovery doesn’t come from Government spending … never has, never will …

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 32

  11. Ben says:

    @JeffC:

    Correct. However, they also revised up the previous two months. Three months is a fiscal quarter. That has some significance.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 1

  12. JeffC says:

    great to be able to talk about something besides Obama’s debate performance isn’t it … :)

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 26

  13. Jr says:

    @JeffC: We have had a 3% decrease of public sector jobs since the recovery has begun.

    And yes, Keynesian economics does in fact work.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 27 Thumb down 1

  14. JeffC says:

    there is noise and then there is a one month household number that is a greater one month change than any other month for the last 29 years … with the prior 2 months numbers showing almost no increases …

    then there is the “seasonal adjustment” issue …

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 23

  15. JeffC says:

    @Jr:

    really, so why did the Stimulus not work ?

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 27

  16. KRM says:

    Jeezus. If Allen West questioning the veracity of the unemployment reports is newsworthy, then you know that we’ve got way too much time on our hands.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

  17. anjin-san says:

    Carters recession was much worse

    Really? Prove it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

  18. Fiona says:

    My immediate thought when the numbers came out was to wonder how the right would spin it and whether they’d think the numbers were cooked.

    No big surprise–one more layer to the conspiracy theory because there’s obviously no way Obama could win this thing unless he cheats. Sigh!

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

  19. michael reynolds says:

    @Eric Florack:

    It’s hard, yes. Because you’re babbling. If you have something to say, please God don’t try to be oblique or cute. You’re impossible to parse logically as it is. Simple declarative sentences, please.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 38 Thumb down 2

  20. Rob in CT says:

    Jeff: government employment is down. There is a cleary downward trend since the ’08 crash. There was a temporary spike for the census which happens every 10 years. There was a small uptick in the past month or two, but total government employment is DOWN, not up. This is even more clear if you factor in population growth (ratio of government workers to total pop).

    So your statement about government employment being at an all-time high is simply false. That’s not the problem. The economy is not good, but government hiring too many people is *not* the reason.

    Carters recession was much worse

    I also don’t think you can really back this up. The crash in ’08-’09 was really, really bad. Granted, it’s a complicated comparison because in the 70s there was much higher inflation.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 16 Thumb down 0

  21. Jr says:

    @JeffC: The Stimulus did work. In January 2009, we lost 800,000 jobs and after congress passed the Stimulus package, we saw the biggest jobs improvement in 30 years in the second quarter.

    The only legitimate criticism people can make about the stimulus was that it was too small.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 2

  22. JeffC says:

    @Jr:

    from BLS

    Government jobs June 2009 : 22,570,000

    Government jobs Sept 2012: 22,001,000

    2.52% … rounds to 3% I guess …

    you are correct … we have less government workers since the recovery began … and 4 trillions dollars of additional debt spending …

    again, why not recovery if Keynesian economics does in fact work ?

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 24

  23. JKB says:

    Might be, as with the election polls, we are seeing the end of statistics. Not the math but the willingness of people to tolerate fool questions from strangers in a time of identity theft.

    Not to mention, it certainly seems the employment statistic guys are geared for measuring the past, big employers, short-term unemployment, etc. They seem ill-equipped to capture the long-term unemployed who’ve stopped bothering with the state employment office, long off unemployment benefits, might be working toward self-employment or in the grayer economy or took their “vacation” but now have exhausted their savings.

    How long before someone who has exhausted their unemployment benefits falls out of the statistics, assuming they don’t use other sampled programs? Seems a lot of people found their benefits ending las May. Four months seems reasonable for DOL to drop them into the “non-existent” pool of those not working but no longer being sampled in other programs, i.e., the disillusioned.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 13

  24. Jr says:

    @JeffC:

    We are in a recovery.

    This time last year UE was at 9% and it is now under 8%. Keynesian economics does work…..because we did in fact stimulate the economy and it is light years better in 2012 then it was in 2009.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 2

  25. legion says:

    @JeffC:

    recovery doesn’t come from Government spending … never has, never will …

    And no competent economist says it will. But increasing gov spending during a recession – specifically to offset the drop in business spending – stabilizes the economy until it is fixed. When Republicans talk about giving businesses “confidence” to stir them to begin spending & hiring again, and I can’t emphasize this enough, government spending to stabilize the GDP is what gives that confidence. It doesn’t fix the underlying problems that caused the recession in the first place (housing bubble, tech bubble, oil shortage, etc), but it’s still necessary to generate recovery. This is why European governments committed to austerity measures are sinking badly & will continue to do so.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 1

  26. OzarkHillbilly says:

    , some conservatives started to accuse the Obama Administration of cooking the books:

    I gotta hand it to them. They make it really hard to tell whether they really are this stupid, or if they just think we are.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

  27. Eric Florack says:

    Would any of the usual suspects in here care to explain the huge disconnect between the rather puny number of new jobs reported and the comparatively huge decrease in the unemployment rate?

    It simply doesn’t add up, gang.

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 31

  28. C. Clavin says:

    If they were going to cook the books…why in the f’ would they wait until now?
    Jack Welch is an old fool.
    Florack…I don’t know how old he is.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 15 Thumb down 1

  29. Jen says:

    @Eric Florack: Secret jobs in tinfoil hat factories.

    On a more serious note, Doug pointed this out in his earlier piece:

    One explanation for this is likely the revisions to the jobs reports for the previous two months. July’s number was revised upward from 141,000 net jobs created to 181,000 net jobs created. August, meanwhile, was revised upward from 96,000 net jobs created to 142,000 net jobs created. That’s a net increase for those to months of 86,000. This number is likely what accounts for the large part of the reason that the unemployment rate itself dropped given the fact that job growth in September was pretty weak and the labor force participation rate was relatively unchanged from where it was a month ago, putting it at a rate nearly as low as it was 30 years ago.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

  30. Eric Florack says:

    Not even close, Jen, though I’ll give you credit for trying.
    Dive into the numbers and look particularly at the household survey vs the establishment survey, and get back to me.

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 24

  31. mantis says:

    @Eric Florack:

    I don’t think anyone’s accusing the BLS of cooking the books.

    Yes they are. You and your idiot friends are all liars.

    One would think you’d stop wishing for bad news for the US, but alas, you cannot.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 2

  32. Eric Florack says:

    If they were going to cook the books…why in the f’ would they wait until now?

    Oh, come on. This isn’t rocket science. You’ve got an administration who is hurting in the polling data, they’re getting slaughtered on 44 months of high unemployment. It’s a month before the election.

    When would such cooking be more effective, than now?

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 29

  33. C. Clavin says:

    The funnest thing about these conspiracy theory fools…Jack Welch, Eric Florak, Jan, etc…is that they were willing to take at face value the numbers when they were bad…but the slightest change to the better and they must be cooked. It’s like the CBO…it’s a great thing when you agree with them…it’s evil incarnate when you don’t. I know the Constitution protects free-speech. Under which Article or Amendment is STUPID protected?

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0

  34. bk says:

    @C. Clavin:

    Under which Article or Amendment is STUPID protected?

    All of them, Katie.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

  35. An Interested Party says:

    It simply doesn’t add up, gang.

    The Evil Liberal Conspiracy continues…when the President wins re-election next month, what conspiracy theory are you going to come up with to explain that…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

  36. KRM says:

    @An Interested Party: Hanging chads? Or has that been tried?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  37. cd6 says:

    Guys! GUYS!

    You are all being tricked by the liebrul MSM AGAIN

    If you look at the unskewed jobs report, it clearly shows that the unemployment rate is 117%. Bad news for NObama!!! So the evil MSM cooks the books!!!

    HOW is the unemployment rate SO FAR ABOVE 100% you ask?!

    because the CHIGAGO STYLE THUGGERY of this regulation loving socialist adminstration has so depressed patriots out there, that they cannot imagine working for this vile regime anymore. Their patriotic resistance counts as negative employment.

    All will be fixed as soon as we elect TRUE CONSERVATIVE mittens romney to presidency of the AMERICAS

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 24 Thumb down 1

  38. MM says:

    @Eric Florack: Yes. Why wouldn’t your made up conspiracy theory seem totally legitimate through your already predetermined filter that this is a conspiracy.

    Gee, this one’s hard.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

  39. Eric Florack says:

    I note that nobody’s even tried to answer the question. So let’s put a little finer edge on it.

    How can anyone take at face value the report 873,000 people went back to work in an economy that created only 114,000 non-farm payroll jobs?

    I’m waiting.

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 17

  40. MM says:

    Next time I have some goalposts that need moving, I’ll be sure to get in touch with JeffC.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

  41. MM says:

    @Eric Florack: Math doesn’t add up when you don’t understand it, huh? Keep diggin’ into those numbers.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

  42. MM says:
  43. stonetools says:

    @cd6:

    You forgot Saul Alinsky, who obviously masterminded this move from the grave.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

  44. Eric Florack says:

    Klien again?

    As for my understanding the math, I understand it rather well, but clearly nobody wants to try the question.
    I’ll bet I know… it’s those other 7 states, where all this employment occurred… in the 57 states. Right?

    Comon, Obama defenders. Let’s hear it. Why don’t these numbers add up?

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 22

  45. Mikey says:

    @MM: Thanks for the link–now I don’t have to write out a lengthy comment, because Klein said everything I was going to say.

    I’d bet on seasonal hiring–my wife, who has worked in retail management, tells me retail always starts ramping up in September for the holiday season.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

  46. Doubter4444 says:

    @Eric Florack:
    How about this then: Impossible to manipulate labor survey, from the lefties at WJS… honestly, it’s really worrying that ANY piece of news is used as a sign of a vast conspiracy. To the wingers spouting it, you’ll reap what you sow… when (if) a R president gets in, the tank of ill will will be tapped, you bettcha.
    So stop. Please.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

  47. Doubter4444 says:
  48. Tsar Nicholas says:

    Two different surveys. Establishment (W-2), a/k/a “payrolls.” And the household survey.

    Two different sets of parameters. The payrolls survey is based on payrolls. The household survey includes non-payroll employment, e.g., 1099 contractors, cash per diem jobs, in addition to payroll jobs. Two different survey methods. The payrolls survey reviews payroll reports. The household survey is based upon telephone calls, yep, to households. Two vastly different sample sizes. The payrolls survey is based upon reports of around 400,000 businesses. The household survey, however, is based upon something like 5,000 households. I forget the exact number. But the household survey is a much smaller sample in terms of raw numbers. Two different statistical sampling techniques. (That gets real complicated, let’s skip it.) Two different seasonality adjustment factors. (The goverment factors out job losses and job gains that purely are seasonal in nature; otherwise the reports would roller coaster each month beyond all recognition.)

    In short these are vastly different surveys and ergo vastly different sets of reports. Generally speaking the payrolls survey is the one with the lesser amount of statistical noise and variables, which is why that’s the headline number. The household survey often varies from the payrolls survey. Sometimes by leaps and bounds. Granted, it’s amazingly rare for the dichotomy to be as huge as that embodied by today’s report (114,000 vs. 873,000 truly is a ginormous spread), but it’s not a conspiracy and it’s not all that shocking. It is what it is.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 2

  49. Jen says:

    @Eric Florack: It’s Klein so you aren’t even going to read it?

    Okay. Here’s the bit you are looking for:

    The number could, of course, be wrong. The household survey is, well, a survey, which means it’s open to error. But the internals back it up. The number saying they had jobs increased by about 800,000. That seems high, but it’s counting 582,000 who say they got part-time jobs.

    There’s precedent for this. As Daniel Indiviglio notes, part-time jobs increased by 579,000 in September 2010 and by 483,000 in September 2011. It might simply be seasonal hiring. You don’t need to resort to ridiculous theories like Democrats across the country suddenly deciding to lie to surveytakers in order to help Obama.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

  50. C. Clavin says:

    “…As for my understanding the math, I understand it rather well…”

    See…there it is…right there…Too Stupid to Realize That You Are Stupid.
    I think you need to understand the Dunning-Kruger effect…in order to understand that you do not understand the math, at all.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 16 Thumb down 1

  51. Florack and friends:

    If the administration can “cook the books” then it would have done do not just months, but years ago.

    Or, if they just figured out how to do it, why not produce even better numbers? If people like 7.8, why the heck not give them 7.5 or 6.0?

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 26 Thumb down 1

  52. A says:

    @Tsar Nicholas:

    I can’t handle that I don’t have to give you a red check

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

  53. Tsar Nicholas says:

    Just to clarify further, the payrolls survey is the headline number for net job growth. 114,000 net jobs added. The household survey is the one upon which the reported unemployment rate is based. 7.8% unemployment. Again, two different surveys with different parameters, sample sizes, sampling techniques, seaonality adjustments. You can have a massive drop in the reported unemployment rate with a very weak jobs added figure. It happens. Vice-versa, too. It’s not a conspiracy. Probably just an outlier. It’s just the way these reports are structured.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

  54. legion says:

    It’s really very simple. Conservative extremists like Florack, and Jack Welch, and these other wack-jobs are spouting conspiracy theories for exactly one reason and one reason only.

    It’s not that they can point to even a single shred of legitimate evidence that the Dems are “cooking books” or lying about surveys or committing voter fraud or whatever evil thing it is they’re accusing people of this week.

    It’s that they know that if _they_ were the ones in power this is _exactly_ what they themselves would do to hold onto it. They’re callow, honorless dirtbags, and they naturally assume everyone else is too.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 0

  55. JKB says:

    @legion:

    You are very wrong. Government spending inhibits private sector growth and creates misinvestment which is what we see now.

    But don’t take my word for it. Listen to George Gilder, who literally wrote the book on Wealth and Poverty. Not to mention, his first edition was read by the Reagan White House and his ideas became the underpinning of the Reagan economic boom. You don’t even have to read the book, here is a 40 min interview for your edification. The economy booms when government is restrained not when the government is trying to pick the winners.

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 22

  56. stonetools says:

    Disputring and denigrating this economic good news just shows the mean-spiritedness of conservatives .

    “There can’t be good economic news because that means the black Kenyan Muslim socialist will get re-elected!”

    That matters more than tens of thousands of people going back to work and getting on with their lives.Patriotism, conservative style.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

  57. sam says:

    @JeffC:

    as the Obama campaign says every month … one months report should not be taken as a trend

    Yeah, like somebody’s father said one year of tax returns doesn’t show you all that much.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

  58. Doubter4444 says:

    @legion:
    It really is getting to the point of wondering why they hate America.
    Seriously.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1

  59. Moosebreath says:

    Let me get this straight — Jack Welch is now spinning conspiracy theories against Obama. This is the same Jack Welch who used to be considered a charter member of the Liberal Media Conspiracy back when he owned NBC’s parent, right?

    I think we’ve found a perpetual motion machine — it’s based on how quickly bithead et al can reverse their opinions in order to blame liberals for all of society’s ills, real or imagined.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

  60. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @legion:

    It’s that they know that if _they_ were the ones in power this is _exactly_ what they themselves would do to hold onto it. They’re callow, honorless dirtbags, and they naturally assume everyone else is too.

    I am not a religious man but I give that an “Amen.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

  61. mantis says:

    @Eric Florack:

    Comon, Obama defenders. Let’s hear it. Why don’t these numbers add up?

    Because you’re stupid.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 16 Thumb down 3

  62. mantis says:

    @Eric Florack:

    When would such cooking be more effective, than now?

    For the past twelve months, moron.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 1

  63. Eric Florack says:

    @Steven L. Taylor

    :If the administration can “cook the books” then it would have done do not just months, but years ago.

    Because the election wasn’t in the balance. And if the fault is found, with the “error” being in the month before the election, the election is already on the books, and can’t be taken back.

    ANd no, Jen…. though again, credit where it’s due for trying. But as I say, try someone besides Klein, whom even you can’t claim to be unbiased.

    The truth is, that this 873,000 is no more than a statistical blip, if that, when we se a few months of data down the road. And yes, I invite you to check back on that statement in a month’s time.

    Kevin Hassett has this down fairly well, in an article I found within the last few minutes.

    Today’s jobs report is a classic. The report, of course, reveals the results of two surveys, one of households, one of establishments. The professional economists and the press usually emphasize the establishment survey because it is viewed as less volatile. The establishment survey was terrible. The 114,000 number of jobs created on net in September is well below the average for this year (146,000) and the average for last year (153,000). This is wholly consistent with the story that the economy is decelerating sharply as we head into the fall.

    The household survey, on the other hand, portrays a September that was booming, far more so than could possibly be true given the other indicators. According to it, the unemployment rate dropped to 7.8 percent, with total employment jumping by a whopping 873,000. I wish it were true, but it will likely be a blip when we have a few more months of data.

    Back when President Bush presided over a jobless recovery, the household survey tended to show better news. At the time, every media organization carefully emphasized the establishment numbers, and warned that the household numbers are suspect. That, of course, is what happens when a Republican is in office. For President Obama, you can expect a household survey lovefest. The AP story that went up at 8:33, of course, emphasized the household survey, even adding, “The decline could help Obama, who is coming off a disappointing debate against Mitt Romney.” Get ready for more of the same.

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 19

  64. Eric Florack says:

    @mantis: The past 12 months? Doubtful. THe left considered the election a lock until just recently.

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 20

  65. C. Clavin says:

    “…Government spending inhibits private sector growth and creates misinvestment which is what we see now…”

    Really? Is that why Reagan grew the Government 300%?
    Is that why every single recovery has relied on Government spending?
    Stupid rassin’ frassin’ ignoramassin’….why do Republicans have such a difficult time with facts?
    Yes…it is possible for the government to crowd out private sector investment…but not when demand is as weak as it currently is.

    “…The economy booms when government is restrained not when the government is trying to pick the winners…”

    Really…so you are for stopping fossil fuel subsidies…both direct and indirect….immediately, if not sooner? And farm subsidies as well? Wal-Mart has recieved over a billion dollars in government “picking winners and losers” money. What should we do about that? Other winners being picked….Boeing, Halliburton, Mobil Oil, IBM, General Electric, AT&T, Motorola, Lucent Technologies, FedEx, General Motors, Raytheon, and United Technologies. You ready to cut them all off?
    Or are you only interested in Solyndra?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 15 Thumb down 1

  66. KRM says:

    I just read through the entire report over lunch (I’m anal that way). Yanno, it’s really not very good news. It looks a lot better as a headline than it does in fine print. Still, the fools claiming “coked books” would be better off reading the report than talking about it. They’re just numbers, after all. What those numbers mean is where the discussion should begin.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

  67. stonetools says:

    @JKB:

    Gorge Gilder is a crackpot.

    He rose to fame with a book that espoused supply side theories that have been totally discredited, then moved on to opposing feminism and evolution. I wish I could have back the time I spent reading “Wealth and Poverty.”

    If you are going to espouse conservative authors, pick better ones. You might want to pick one who actually IS an economist, like Milton Friedman

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

  68. Eric Florack says:

    @stonetools:

    That matters more than tens of thousands of people going back to work and getting on with their lives.Patriotism, conservative style.

    THey’re part time jobs… the data shows this clearly. Do try again.

    Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 18

  69. C. Clavin says:

    Kevin Hassett…the guy that wrote Dow 36,000?
    He has about as firm an understanding of the economy as you do Florack…which is to say it’s virtually non-existent.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 1

  70. Hal 10000 says:

    I don’t know what’s wrong with people. This is an extension of what I’ve seen before: Republicans are almost disappointed when good job numbers come out and almost gleeful when bad ones come out. So now that they’re not getting the bad job numbers they so desperately want, they’re pretending to.

    We should be happy about good job numbers, no matter who is President and distressed about job numbers, no matter who is President. To hell with this partisan crap.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 20 Thumb down 1

  71. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Doubter4444:

    It really is getting to the point of wondering why they hate America.
    Seriously.

    They don’t hate America, they hate Americans. Can you see the difference? No? Neither can I but that doesn’t matter. They can.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0

  72. legion says:

    @JKB: The problem of gov spending “crowding out” private investment only applies during ordinary economic times; not during recessions. That’s why gov spending should be reduced during boom times (it wasn’t really reduced during the Clinton boom period, which is one of the reasons we’re in the mess we’re in now, but that’s a whole different discussion). Don’t buy it? I have references too. I prefer Nobel Laureates who have been proven correct about pretty much everything they said about this recession…

    (Emphasis mine; this is from about exactly 3 years ago – he was ignored then…)

    The textbook answer identifies two reasons — two ways in which budget deficits now make us worse off in the future. They are:

    (1) The fiscal burden: deficits now mean higher debt later, which will have to be serviced, and that means higher taxes and/or less spending on other, presumably desirable things

    (2) Crowding out: when it runs deficits, the government competes with the private sector for funds, so deficits crowd out private investment, which reduces potential growth

    All this makes sense under normal conditions. But right now we’re not living under normal conditions. We’re in a situation in which the economy is deeply depressed, and monetary policy — the usual line of defense against recession — is hard up against the zero-interest-rate bound. This weakens argument (1) — and it actually reverses argument (2).

    But the really dramatic difference is for argument (2). Under the kind of conditions we’re now facing, the main determinant of business investment is the state of the economy, as evidenced by the plunge in investment shown in the figure. This, in turn, means that anything that improves the state of the economy, including fiscal stimulus, leads to more investment, and hence raises the economy’s future potential.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

  73. mantis says:

    @Eric Florack:

    THe left considered the election a lock until just recently.

    You don’t have a clue what “the left” actually thinks, just the imaginary version in the fevered dreams of wingnuts like yourself.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 18 Thumb down 1

  74. @Eric Florack:

    Because the election wasn’t in the balance. And if the fault is found, with the “error” being in the month before the election, the election is already on the books, and can’t be taken back.

    Ah yes, because a year (or two!) of good numbers wouldn’t have been helpful at all.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 28 Thumb down 1

  75. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Eric Florack:

    The past 12 months? Doubtful. THe left considered the election a lock until just recently.

    Eric, as one of the uneducated (read stupid) left, 12 months ago I thought Obama’s goose was cooked. It was only in the past month that I realized the GOP had nominated a complete political ignoramus that I began to believe Obama not only had a chance to pull it out, but that he would have to commit political Harri-Kiri in order to lose.

    I wonder when you are going to realize that Romney is an Obama plant?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1

  76. Ken says:

    @Eric Florack:

    Oh, come on. This isn’t rocket science. You’ve got an administration who is hurting in the polling data

    Yeah, no kidding. I mean, Compared to one month ago, his approval ratings have plummeted from 47% to 50%

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 17 Thumb down 1

  77. C. Clavin says:

    @ Mantis…
    He doesn’t even know what he thinks…until the nurses tell him what to think…and adjust his meds.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  78. Moderate Mom says:

    lhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-05/u-s-jobless-rate-unexpectedly-falls-to-7-8-114-000-jobs-added.htm

    Bloomberg has a pretty good analysis of the numbers and revisions for August.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  79. Dave says:

    @JKB:

    That applies only in a “normal” economy. In a normally functioning economy government can possibly push out private enterprise – but this is NOT a normally functioning economy. Private investment is lacking (due to deleveraging and general lack of demand) and it is government’s job to take up the slack.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 1

  80. Dave says:

    Damn, Legion beat me to it. Oh well, his post is better anyway.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  81. legion says:

    @Eric Florack: Literally every single thing you say is wrong. The opposite of true. A lie.

    The past 12 months? Doubtful. THe left considered the election a lock until just recently.

    No, the opposite is true – it’s only been in the last few weeks people have started calling an Obama victory all but inevitable. Prior to that, it was very up-in-the-air. And don’t forget – Romney has only been the actual GOP nominee for a short time.

    Oh, come on. This isn’t rocket science. You’ve got an administration who is hurting in the polling data

    Again, as already shown in previous comments, you are lying.

    If (and that’s an impossible if, as also previously stated, and now underlined by Doug in a separate post) the administration _could_ manipulate these numbers, doing so over the past few years to make things look rosier than they really were would have kept things from even being close right now, eliminating the need to manipulate them further. Even in your own manufactured reality, you still can’t win an argument against yourself. Because you’re an idiot.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 2

  82. Eric Florack says:

    By the way, just as a datapoint… Gallup did it’s own poll, and found Unemployment at the seasonally adjusted rate of 8.1%.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 10

  83. wr says:

    @JKB: Yes, JKB, all statistics are worthless since they disagree with your political preconceptions. It must be the numbers and the information gathering. It couldn’t possibly be that you and your fellow “conservatives” are so consumed with hate and fear you would rather deny reality than accept you could ever have been wrong about anything.

    This is probably the most pathetic display I’ve ever seen in my life.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0

  84. @Eric Florack:

    And Gallup has Obama up by 6 points over Romney and has his approval at 54%.

    Your point?

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 17 Thumb down 2

  85. Also, the seasonably unadjusted unemployment rate at 7.9%.

    Again: your point?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 1

  86. Eric Florack says:

    Legion, forget it. You’re twisting the truth and you know it.

    At no time did I suggest that the administration twisted the numbers themselves. As with the article I quoted, my claim… as yet to be disproven, by the way… is how such numbers are selectively reported by both the WH and their minions in the MSM.

    I’d advise looking at this report, before proceeding further. And of course we’ll all hear about how “The Economist is a right wing conspiracy site”.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 14

  87. Eric Florack says:

    @Steven L. Taylor:

    And Gallup has Obama up by 6 points over Romney and has his approval at 54%

    Exactly so. So much for anyone telling us that they’re in the tank for Romney, as an explaination for why the employment numbers are somewhat more realistic.

    Your point?

    Again, it comes down to how the numbers are reported.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 11

  88. mantis says:

    Some analysis of Gallup’s employment numbers from their chief economist:

    Given the results of last night’s presidential debate, the administration could use some good news in Friday’s unemployment report. A decline in the government’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September to 7.9% — nearly matching its lowest level since President Barack Obama took office — might be just what the president needs. While this seems unlikely based on Gallup’s September polling both at mid-month and now for the month as a whole, it remains a distinct possibility.

    Gallup knows the BLS numbers are better. They just try to predict what they will be. In this case, they were slightly off.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

  89. mantis says:

    @Eric Florack:

    Again, it comes down to how the numbers are reported.

    No, it doesn’t. You are full of shit.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0

  90. mantis says:

    @Eric Florack:

    Legion, forget it. You’re twisting the truth and you know it.

    We all know who is twisting the truth here, and it’s the wingnut rooting for America to fail.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

  91. @Eric Florack: Sooooo.

    You ignore the 7.9% number, but like the 8.1% number and the other numbers simply show how Gallup isn’t in the tank for Romney.

    Gotcha.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0

  92. wr says:

    @Eric Florack: Ooh! Ooh! Can I play, too? I just did a survey and found that unemployment was at 2.3 percent! And my survey is every bit as useful and important as Gallup’s.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 1

  93. C. Clavin says:

    You know…when you step back it becomes apparent what the truthers…conspiracy theorists like Jack Welch and JKB and Florack and Jan…are really doing. They are rooting for economic failure in order to achieve political gain. Certainly thats what McConnel was up to when he said getting rid of Obama was job one.
    Given a little bit of good news they want it to be bad. They are rooting against the integrity of a Bureau of the United States Government…and they are rooting against economic growth and jobs for the people of the United States. All because they want their politician to win. Team sports before Country.
    I’m left asking…why do Jack Welch and JKB and Florack and Jan hate America so much???

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 3

  94. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Eric Florack:

    At no time did I suggest that the administration twisted the numbers themselves.

    @Eric Florack:

    When would such cooking be more effective, than now?

    Eric, if you are going to just flat out lie, try doing it in separate threads. It isn’t quite so obvious then.

    Highly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: Thumb up 29 Thumb down 1

  95. grumpy realist says:

    Makes one wonder what the Republicans will do to the books if they ever get back into power…..

    It’s amazing how the modern-day Republican party has morphed into an entity that has all the downsides of the Soviet Communist Party. Utopianism? Check. A constant search for heretics? Check. Inability to deal with reported facts? Check. Willingness to make up their own statistics? Check.

    At some point, the law of gravity will, in fact hit. Result: implosion and loss of political power of USSR. What will happen in the US?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0

  96. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @C. Clavin:

    I’m left asking…why do Jack Welch and JKB and Florack and Jan hate America so much???

    They don’t. They just hate you.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  97. Bob in Zion (Illinois) says:

    It’s really too bad the media doesn’t report the U-6 number regularly, since it’s a better true indicator of where we stand job wise. At 14.7% it pretty much says our jobs situation sucks.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 7

  98. Scott says:

    @grumpy realist: Yes, let’s play trutherism. It fun! Here’s one: The Republicans cooked the books when they said at the end of the Bush years that the economy declined by 3% when it was really 9%, thus setting the Obama administration up for failed predictions.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 1

  99. C. Clavin says:

    @ Ozark…
    Well, Marco Rubio told me I’m not an American because I don’t believe in god.
    So just add those four fools to the list.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 1

  100. KRM says:

    Here’s an interesting analysis (with pictures!) for anyone who cares enough to be interested.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  101. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @C. Clavin:

    Well, Marco Rubio told me I’m not an American because I don’t believe in god.

    You too? I hate it when they remind me how un-American I am.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 2

  102. Jeremy R. says:

    Romney Online Rapid Response Director reacts to unemployment rate drop: “‘YAY!’ Said nobody.”

    https://twitter.com/alcivar/status/254271502248210432

    Bitter much?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

  103. PJ says:

    @Eric Florack:

    I’d advise looking at this report, before proceeding further. And of course we’ll all hear about how “The Economist is a right wing conspiracy site”.

    You’re not linking to The Economist, you’re linking to the AEI. Last time I checked the AEI identified itself as conservative.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 2

  104. Eric Florack says:

    @Doubter4444: And they’re echoing the report from TE, no?

    @C. Clavin: Yeah, pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. The economy is fine. Right?

    The millions of unemployed thanks to Obama’s policies are going to be paying too much attention to of statistical blip. They’re going to remember that they’re unemployed. Guess who they’ll be voting against? Must be they’re hoping for America’s demise, too, huh?

    I mean, how low can the defenders of Obama sink?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 11

  105. Eric Florack says:

    @OzarkHillbilly: You do know about answering specific points one at a time, right? The question was why wouldn’t they have been cooking the stuff all along, for which I gave a reasonable answer… and one you yourself would have come up with had THE GOP been in the White House.

    As to my thinking they’ve been cooking the stuff, I think I’ve answered that in the negative repeatedly.

    I suppose it is as usual, the way it’s being touted by the WH and the press,

    @KRM: Well done. I’d not seen that one.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 9

  106. Bleev K says:

    Remember, Jerry, Eric, it’s not a lie if you believe it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  107. Moosebreath says:

    @Eric Florack:

    bithead,

    Your report from the economist is from American Enterprise Institute, and quotes not the magazine The Economist, but “economists John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros of RDQ Economics”

    Is there anything you won’t pull from your hindquarters in your efforts to deny reality?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

  108. OzarkHillbilly says:

    @Eric Florack:

    As to my thinking they’ve been cooking the stuff, I think I’ve answered that in the negative repeatedly.

    Eric, you said

    At no time did I suggest that the administration twisted the numbers themselves. (my emphasis)

    Except you did suggest it. Twice.

    Here:@Eric Florack:

    and here:@Eric Florack:

    Now you may take comfort in your statements that they aren’t cooking the numbers, but I call it speaking out of both sides of your mouth. And that is BS. You can’t have it both ways.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1

  109. legion says:

    @Eric Florack: First of all, those millions of unemployed people (about whom you clearly know very little) will remember that a lot of them have been unemployed since before Obama took office. And they’ll remember that it was the Republicans who have fought down every attempt to improve their chances (or extend unemployment benefits). And they’ll recognize that Romney has pledged, repeatedly, to do exactly nothing for them, ever.

    Secondly,

    my claim… as yet to be disproven, by the way… is how such numbers are selectively reported by both the WH and their minions in the MSM.

    Your claim is simple BS. The BLS surveys are public record, and so is their methodology. It’s not a secret from anyone. Private pollsters, like your vaunted Gallup, aren’t as forthcoming with how they come up with their numbers. If the administration (or the “MSM”) were manipulating or misreporting things, it would be blindingly obvious within the crosstabs, and even Fox News can hire someone competent enough to read those. Unless you don’t consider them “reliable enought” for you now.

    Finally, as PJ noted, that article you quote isn’t from “The Economist”, it’s from AEI, and the headline (“Economist: Unemployment drop ‘implausible … a statistical quirk’”) refers to the opinion of an (lower-case-e) economist; specifically two economists writing for a completely different magazine. They have an opinion that statistical volatility is to blame for these numbers, not that anyone is manipulating anything. Do I have to read your own evidence for you, to point out that it doesn’t even support your own statements?

    Logic – it’s not just for breakfast anymore.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 1

  110. C. Clavin says:

    “…The millions of unemployed thanks to Obama’s policies…”

    Which policies of Obamas, specifically, have led to unemployment?
    And please provide links.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  111. john personna says:

    @KRM:

    I like your link.

    I guess this is the Republican turn to wet the bed. Jobs numbers were on slow improvement. Just a continuation of the trend had to break below 8% at some point. No change was required, just as I say a continuation.

    Suddenly, OMG, “7.8 is just a little below 8.1!!!!!”

    That would be math.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

  112. john personna says:

    BTW, Calculated Risk has some very good charts as well:

    September Employment Report: 114,000 Jobs, 7.8% Unemployment Rate

    This one shows continuation of trend.

    This one shows comparison to other major fiscal crises.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1

  113. Doubter4444 says:

    @OzarkHillbilly:

    It really is getting to the point of wondering why they hate America.
    Seriously.

    They don’t hate America, they hate Americans. Can you see the difference? No? Neither can I but that doesn’t matter. They can.

    That’s a really interesting point. In a way it’s their fig leaf, I guess.
    But really – and I ask this in all seriousness – to the main bloggers on this site, whom I respect:
    When does this partisan “spinning” of information from leaders of a opposition movment become beyond the pale?
    When does it become anti-American?
    Or does it ever? Is it all sound and fury?

    I’m actually interested it that… did it cross aline during the Bush years? Has it happened this year? Or is it just “in the moment” kicker twisting?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  114. Doubter4444 says:

    That’s KNICKER twisting… jeezz I’m a terrible typist

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  115. Latino_in_Boston says:

    Here’s some free advice for you job truthers. Stop worrying about it. If, as you say, the government is actually cooking the books, it doesn’t matter, because people don’t vote based on what the media says, they vote based on whether they have a job or not. (That’s the whole point of any attention to the job numbers, is it not?). So, if the unemployment rate has not actually gone down and it’s actually closer to 11% then he’s on his way out.

    On the other hand, if the numbers are correct, as most likely they are, there’s no point in arguing about them. They have already happened, and if they have convinced people to vote for Obama, telling them that the job numbers are being cooked is not going to make them change their minds. You’re just wasting your breath. Go read Milton Friedman, instead. It would be a better use of your time.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 1

  116. Ben Wolf says:

    @JeffC:

    again, why not recovery if Keynesian economics does in fact work ?

    You are making a fundamental macroeconomics error: one cannot determine budgetary policy from budgetary outcomes.

    Our trillion dollar deficits are not a product of stimulus, Keynesian or any other kind. They are the result of the private sector’s desire to save money. The more households save, the less they spend and the more unemployment is created. As unemployment increases and revenues decrease, the automatic stabilizers kick in with counter-cyclical welfare spending to those who have lwt their jobs or experienced salary cuts. No new discretionary spending is occuring to “stimulate”. Even with large deficits the current budgetary stance is neutral, not expansionary. Europe has adopted a contractionary stance and is falling into a depression that is making deficits even worse.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  117. jukeboxgrad says:

    a:

    I guess if Obama wins the argument will the be the election oversampled Democrats

    Yes, exactly, in the following sense: millions of colored people were allowed to vote even though they were not required to show papers proving they are Real Americans™.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  118. jukeboxgrad says:

    jkb:

    Might be, as with the election polls, we are seeing the end of statistics. Not the math but the willingness of people to tolerate fool questions from strangers in a time of identity theft.

    Sorry to burst your ignorant bubble (link):

    A new study by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press finds that, despite declining response rates, telephone surveys that include landlines and cell phones and are weighted to match the demographic composition of the population continue to provide accurate data on most political, social and economic measures. This comports with the consistent record of accuracy achieved by major polls when it comes to estimating election outcomes, among other things.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  119. Clanton says:

    I do not go by these government statistics, haven’t for a long time. I rely on the “suffering” index that I see on a daily basis, not some bureaucratic studies.
    My pay is about 80% of what it was in 2005, with a serious decline in benefits. Many people I know have gone back to work for less wages and no benefits for many. Most of the jobs they get are temporary, menial, unskilled labor types of work: such as binding reports together: this job for someone who had 20+ years of experience in the banking industry. Price of food: I have numbers from just 2-3 years ago and my calculator shows a 30% or more increase in basic foods. Price of gasoline: $3.74 a gallon. Many skilled and highly educated workers are taking the jobs that were for retired people and students. Many local factories have shut down completely and this country’s manufacturing base is disappearing. I would hate to think what would happen if the US got involved in a major war . Where would we get the jeeps, tanks, battleships, destroyers, submarines, aircraft, and aircraft carriers be manufactured? Are we going to get those from China too? At the end of WWII, this country was the most powerful, prosperous in world history. Think about it. Now: 40% on food stamps!
    “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics!” Mark Twain.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 4

  120. JEBurke says:

    I would not say the BLS numbers were “cooked” or “manipulated” for the simple reason that I have no evidence of this (the most you can say is that it’s mighty convenient that the headline rate dropped a whopping 0.3 percent to where it was in 2009 just in time for the election even though other data point to an ongoing serious problem).

    But I would say this to Doug and others who think it’s insane to believe that manipulation is possible. Of course it is! The Household Survey is a poll that supplies raw data from which extrapolations are made (itself, a “manipulation”). How accurate it is from month to month depends on a host of variables, some of which are controllable, some not (that’s why the numbers are almost always revised as new data is added). And the notion that BLS employees are as trustworthy as Caesar’s wife was supposed to be because they are non-political career government professionals is a real thigh slapper to anyone who has worked in government (as I did for nearly two decades).

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 5

  121. anjin-san says:

    Think about it. Now: 40% on food stamps!
    “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics!”

    Irony meter just blew…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  122. jukeboxgrad says:

    clavin:

    Other winners being picked….Boeing, Halliburton, Mobil Oil, IBM, General Electric, AT&T, Motorola, Lucent Technologies, FedEx, General Motors, Raytheon, and United Technologies. You ready to cut them all off?
    Or are you only interested in Solyndra?

    That’s a great list, and another excellent example is the Keystone Pipeline, as Stormy Dragon explained a few days ago:

    … the land was being secured almost entirely via eminent domain actions. Are you saying you now agree with nationalizing private property for the purpose of furthering a centrally controlled industrial agenda?

    The GOP condemns “a centrally controlled industrial agenda” except when they don’t.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  123. john personna says:

    @JEBurke:

    the most you can say is that it’s mighty convenient that the headline rate dropped a whopping 0.3 percent

    But to say that, you have to be someone totally new to the data. The graphs show gyrations by that much happening all the time. See here. Look at the spike up and the drop down in 4th quarter 2010. That’s almost a full point peak to trough, in just one quarter.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 1

  124. john personna says:

    Meta level, the funny thing is that Democrats wrung hands because Obama didn’t tell some truths, and kept quiet during the debate. Republicans look a lot worse, wringing hands for data that is real, and told.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  125. jukeboxgrad says:

    It really is getting to the point of wondering why they hate America.

    It’s not that they hate America; it’s that there’s something they love infinitely more: extreme wealth. If that’s my main goal, real patriotism can get in the way.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  126. jukeboxgrad says:

    ozark:

    I wonder when you are going to realize that Romney is an Obama plant?

    Hell, I think Florack is an Obama plant. Florack, how much does Soros pay you to come here and convince everyone that conservatives are ignorant liars?

    Lots of people in this thread have pointed out what all regulars here know: you’re a pathological liar. But for the benefit of any newcomers who are not familiar with your remarkable record, here are a few examples: example, example, example.

    It’s too bad that using too many links will trip the spam filter, because otherwise I could include enough links to choke a horse.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  127. Anderson says:

    I didn’t even glance at this post until just now, when I went, “WHAT? 126 comments on THAT?”

    Then I clicked, scrolled, and saw ol’ Beldar.

    Oh. That explains it.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  128. john personna says:

    Related:

    House Science Member Says Earth is 9,000 years old

    In other words the world was made about 51,000 years after humans invented the boat.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  129. anjin-san says:

    Is there anything you won’t pull from your hindquarters in your efforts to deny reality?

    If you were bithead, you would want to deny reality too…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  130. jukeboxgrad says:

    anderson:

    Then I clicked, scrolled, and saw ol’ Beldar.

    I know who Beldar is, but how is he connected to this thread?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  131. Console says:

    I don’t mind the U6 measure, although I think U3 is better and U4 is better than both. Underemployment is a separate issue from unemployment. And marginally attached workers may or may not be out of the labor force due to economic reasons. “I became a stay-at-home mom but if I see a really good opportunity I might go back in the workforce” is separate from “I got laid off, and I haven’t been able to get a job so I gave up looking.” U6 count’s both, U4 only counts the latter, and U3 counts neither.

    For the record, U4 went from 8.6 to 8.3, U6 is unchanged.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  132. Mr. Replica says:

    Hey, all you Jack Welch fans/believers. Suck it!

    Jack Welch: I have no evidence jobs numbers were doctored

    Former General Electric CEO Jack Welch admitted to Hardball host Chris Matthews Friday that he had no evidence to support his accusation that President Barack Obama’s administration had falsified new employment statistics, yet refused to take it back.

    Raw Story (http://s.tt/1pirq)

    You know what I hear in my head when I read Jack’s opinion, and people that agree with him? I hear a take on a line from Blazing Saddles. But, instead of “badges” I hear “evidence”.

    “Evidence? We don’t need no stinkin’ evidence!”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  133. Eric Florack says:

    2009… this 7.8% unemployment rate Bush left me is horrible, and unpatriotic.
    2012: this 7.8% unemployment rate I’ve given you ROCKS.

    AHem.

    You are making a fundamental macroeconomics error: one cannot determine budgetary policy from budgetary outcomes.

    Kinda like saying you can’t see the tire prints on a pedestrian’s chest, and suggest what killed him.

    First of all, those millions of unemployed people (about whom you clearly know very little) will remember that a lot of them have been unemployed since before Obama took office.

    Yeah. Soon as Obama got elected, businesses started closing. Mine was one of them. I used to be a systems admin at a bank.. a home equity dividion. I and the 400 people I supported were on the street looking up where the office used to be when Obama was swearing in.

    Jobs numbers were on slow improvement.

    Slow is the word. At the rate they were improving, we;d be waiting until about 2023 to get back to where we were at the end of the Bush Administration.

    Your claim is simple BS. The BLS surveys are public record, and so is their methodology. It’s not a secret from anyone.

    Look closely at the article I quoted. Here’s the part I mean:

    Back when President Bush presided over a jobless recovery, the household survey tended to show better news. At the time, every media organization carefully emphasized the establishment numbers, and warned that the household numbers are suspect. That, of course, is what happens when a Republican is in office. For President Obama, you can expect a household survey lovefest. The AP story that went up at 8:33, of course, emphasized the household survey, even adding, “The decline could help Obama, who is coming off a disappointing debate against Mitt Romney.”

    Again, it’s how the numbers are reported. Which, I note, is exactly what I’ve been saying all along.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 7

  134. mantis says:

    @Eric Florack:

    Again, it’s how the numbers are reported

    Too bad this:

    At the time, every media organization carefully emphasized the establishment numbers, and warned that the household numbers are suspect.

    Is not true.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  135. wr says:

    @Mr. Replica: Because I have a lot of respect for you, I am going to assume that this was just a slip of the mind and you actually knew the real reference — although quoted in Blazing Saddles — comes from The Treasure of the Sierra Madre.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  136. jukeboxgrad says:

    Stolen from a commenter at WP:

    BREAKING NEWS: anonymous and unreliable sources are reporting that these job numbers were actually created in a Kenyan job numbers factory owned by a distant cousin of the President who is a confirmed Islamofascist. “You see the B in the BLS really stands for Barack,” said the source.” So it’s really Barack’s Labor Statistics, see.”

    Back in 1884 when Republican Chester Arthur founded the BLS and long before Kenya was a nation, Democrats started secretly plotting to skew the job numbers in the 21st century and transform the United States into a European-style United Nations-loving socialist country, so they contracted with the ancestors of the President to manufacture jobs numbers that would be a little better than usual in the 21st century – a 3% improvement. Then at the President’s command, the numbers from the Kenyan job factory replaced the actual numbers from the BLS.

    “The rest is history,” said the source, “why this has conspiracy written all over it. The economy can’t improve under a Democrat. It’s outrageous. It’s preposterous. Those Democrats, they’ve been waiting 128 years to pull this off.”

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0

  137. bk says:

    @Eric Florack: I seriously can’t understand why you, and people like you, openly root for bad economic news. Similarly, I can’t understand why you, and people like you, seemingly take pleasure in believing that the Obama administration didn’t properly handle the response to the incident in Libya in which FOUR AMERICANS DIED. Is it just stupidity? Ignorance? Or is it something more pathological? Regardless, I have problems believing that you can stand behind the crap that you write here. But if you do? Then you are a seriously unhinged – and despicable – human being. Get some help.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  138. jukeboxgrad says:

    legion:

    It’s that they know that if _they_ were the ones in power this is _exactly_ what they themselves would do to hold onto it. They’re callow, honorless dirtbags, and they naturally assume everyone else is too.

    You might not know exactly how right you are (link):

    Welch knows a thing or two about manipulating numbers. During his time at GE, the company began a system of tweaking their earnings that eventually resulted in a $50 million fine. But just because he oversaw a cooking of the books doesn’t mean that’s a standard national practice.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  139. Mr. Replica says:

    @wr:

    You are right. It does originally come from The Treasure of the Sierra Madre. Not many people know that. So, I went with the movie, I assumed, more people were familiar with.
    Unless we have more Bogart fans compared to Mel Brooks fans here at OTB…? If so, my bad!
    Either way, I’ll make sure to use Sierra Madre if I ever use the badges quote again.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  140. jukeboxgrad says:

    I’ll make sure to use Sierra Madre if I ever use the badges quote again.

    I figure you might as well use this one (link):

    In the 1989 Weird Al Yankovic film UHF, the line occurs in a spoof of Raul’s Wild Kingdom, during the scene where Raul (Trinidad Silva) receives his animal delivery. When he is asked to take a consignment of badgers, he says “Badgers? We don’t need no stinking badgers!”.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  141. Mr. Replica says:

    jukeboxgrad:

    I do not think badgers care enough for me to use that line.

    waka waka.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  142. jukeboxgrad says:

    Is that a badger in your pocket or are you happy to see me?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  143. Mr. Replica says:

    It’s a badger.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  144. jukeboxgrad says:

    Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  145. anjin-san says:

    Yeah. Soon as Obama got elected, businesses started closing

    I guess you are just flat out too stupid to understand that the Bush crash had something to do with that…

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 5 Thumb down 0

  146. Eric Florack says:

    Actually, Bush had nothing to do with that. They foresaw. based on the campaign rhetoric of Obama, a real estate market collapsing with Obama… and reacted accordingly.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 12

  147. jan says:

    The EU numbers, like the polling numbers seem erratic and illogical to me. I feel like there is a puppet master, somewhere, pulling various strings to create the action or mood desired. But, it’s just a feeling…and, I know feelings aren’t facts. So, I’m accepting the wonderful fall in the EU, and only hope it’s not a leveraged prank to achieve a better outcome for what to me is a failed, weak president.

    The most honest post on this thread, however, was from someone who pragmatically said that it will be the people who will ultimately decide the accuracy of this EU figure, mainly from examining their own lives and observing the economy around them. If they perceive it to be good, then they will probably go for the present guy in the WH, If they measure it to be bad, that the numerical assessment of others is baloney, then they will probably want to go with the challenger to the WH.

    In the meantime, Andrew Klavan, from the right side, has written a candid assessment of how he sees the political season: A Fantasy Election, an Imaginary Man. There’s one part in his piece that pays particular attention to how the media has heavily invested itself in Obama, almost mothering him in their display of intense concern/worry that he do good. Chris Matthews’s post election rant so exemplified this bond, in the way that Matthews chastised, lamented, and even pleaded with Obama to watch MSNBC for pointers on what to say in these debates. Thusly, Klavan nails it when he says:

    The mystery Obama—the hollow receptacle of out-sized fantasies left and right—is not a creation of his own making, political chameleon though he may well be. It emanates instead from a journalistic community that no longer in any way fulfills its designated function, that no longer even attempts the fair presentation of facts and current events aimed at helping the American electorate make up its mind according to its own lights. Rather, left-wing outlets like the New York Times, the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, Time, Newsweek, NBC News, ABC News, CBS News, and the like have now devoted themselves to fashioning an image of the world they think their audiences ought to believe in—that they may guide us toward voting as they think we should. They have fallen prey to that ideological corruption that sees lies as a kind of virtue, as a noble deception in service to a greater good.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 5

  148. anjin-san says:

    From bithead

    They foresaw. based on the campaign rhetoric of Obama, a real estate market collapsing with Obama

    From Wikipedia

    As the housing market began to soften from winter 2005 through summer 2006

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_housing_market_correction

    Yep. Too stupid.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

  149. anjin-san says:

    the media has heavily invested itself in Obama, almost mothering him

    Well, that explains the New Yorker cover…

    You know Jan, Democrats have more or less ripped Obama across the board in here for his debate performance. You know, the Democrats you accuse of wearing “partisan blinders” on pretty much a daily basis. Now how can that be?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0

  150. sam says:

    @jan:

    The EU numbers, like the polling numbers seem erratic and illogical to me. I feel like there is a puppet master, somewhere, pulling various strings to create the action or mood desired.

    For God’s sake, will somebody, anybody, get this poor woman some help?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 9 Thumb down 0

  151. jukeboxgrad says:

    jan:

    I feel like there is a puppet master, somewhere, pulling various strings

    This might help:

    10 characteristics of conspiracy theorists …

    1. Arrogance. …
    2. Relentlessness. …
    3. Inability to answer questions. …
    4. Fondness for certain stock phrases. …
    5. Inability to employ or understand Occam’s Razor. …
    6. Inability to tell good evidence from bad. …
    7. Inability to withdraw. …
    8. Leaping to conclusions. …
    9. Using previous conspiracies as evidence to support their claims. …
    10. It’s always a conspiracy. …

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  152. jukeboxgrad says:

    florack:

    Bush had nothing to do with that. They foresaw. based on the campaign rhetoric of Obama, a real estate market collapsing with Obama

    As anjin-san pointed out, the housing bubble started to break in 2005. Notice this (Barron’s, 8/21/06):

    A coming crisis in housing will cause a sharp selloff in stocks.

    At the time that statement was made in 2006, the president was Bush. He had been president for five years. Meanwhile, Obama didn’t announce that he was running for president until 2007, and he wasn’t elected until 2008, and he didn’t become president until 2009. But his “campaign rhetoric” is the cause of a housing collapse that Barron’s was discussing in 2006?

    Here on planet Earth, the arrow of time only moves in one direction, and belief in time travel is normally considered a form of insanity. So when you say “based on the campaign rhetoric of Obama,” which “campaign” are you talking about? When he ran for president of the Harvard Law School Law Review?

    Anyway, I’m sure GWB tried really hard to address the housing crisis that took place on his watch. In fact, he tried so hard that his efforts inspired Sen. Chris Bond (R) to say this (4/08):

    Homeownership appears to be a bigger priority in the administration than affordability and foreclosure… I think the emphasis on homeownership helped to drive the foreclosure crisis we’re now in. . . . All these wonderful ideas . . . didn’t do them any good when we put them in housing they couldn’t afford.

    How did this Republican Senator get to be such an idiot? Why did he blame Bush? Why did he say that Bush’s policies “helped to drive the foreclosure crisis we’re now in?” Didn’t he know that “Bush had nothing to do with that?” Why doesn’t he believe in time travel, like you?

    By the way, did you know that “the campaign rhetoric of Obama” also caused 9/11, Pearl Harbor, and the Spanish-American War? I’m struck by your reticence in failing to mention this.

    The Stupid, It Burns.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  153. @Eric Florack:

    Actually, Bush had nothing to do with that. They foresaw. based on the campaign rhetoric of Obama, a real estate market collapsing with Obama… and reacted accordingly.

    I now have to wonder if EF’s entire multi-year participation here has not been some kind of long-con performance art.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0

  154. john personna says:

    @jan:

    What do you think “EU” means?

    EU disambiguation

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  155. al-Ameda says:

    Truthers, Birthers … whatever.

    The only solution that I can see is for Republicans to move to North Korea where they can implement their alternative reality. It really seems to be the perfect place for them – a complete law and order state, unyielding support for authority, no diversity or multi-culturalism, no unions.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0

  156. al-Ameda says:

    @Eric Florack:

    Yeah. Soon as Obama got elected, businesses started closing. Mine was one of them. I used to be a systems admin at a bank.. a home equity dividion. I and the 400 people I supported were on the street looking up where the office used to be when Obama was swearing in.

    Quite possibly the most breathtakingly stupid and uninformed remark concerning the effect of the 2008 financial crash and subsequent recession I’ve seen here on OTB. Congratulations.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  157. bk says:

    @al-Ameda:

    Quite possibly the most breathtakingly stupid and uninformed remark concerning the effect of the 2008 financial crash and subsequent recession I’ve seen here on OTB.

    The day is still young; plenty of time for him to top himself.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  158. bk says:

    @al-Ameda: You really think that one is more “breathtakingly stupid” than this?

    They foresaw. based on the campaign rhetoric of Obama, a real estate market collapsing with Obama

    It’s close, I will grant you that.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  159. @Eric Florack:

    Yeah. Soon as Obama got elected, businesses started closing. Mine was one of them. I used to be a systems admin at a bank.. a home equity dividion. I and the 400 people I supported were on the street looking up where the office used to be when Obama was swearing in.

    BTW: I don’t believe this for a minute.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  160. jan says:

    Not only is Romney speaking out and correcting the misstatements of his opponents (seen in the last debate), but so are the people! Here’s a story about a woman at a GOP rally who the dems immediately spun as calling Ryan out, when all she did was ask a question.

    Because this attendee follows the news, she became aware of the left miscasting her question, so, she wrote the following corrective letter to the editor:

    I am the woman in the Green Bay Packer jacket at Rep. Paul Ryan’s rally in Clinton who asked him the question about specific plans to fix our economy. Needless to say, I was quite shocked to learn the Obama campaign seized my question, putting out the statement “Even Ryan can’t attend his own rally without being called out.”

    I was not calling Ryan out. I had the opportunity to ask a direct question to Paul Ryan and what I got was a complete direct answer with no spin… (something she couldn’t have gotten from the Obama/Biden counterparts)

    Today I am outraged that my question is being misrepresented and used as a political tool against the Romney/Ryan campaign by both media and the Obama camp. The question I asked is what we the citizens want to know: How is the Romney/Ryan plan going to tackle this economy? Paul Ryan answered it with precise clarity.

    When Romney/Ryan are able to articulate their message directly to the people there is no dem or media misinterpretation, spin, or filter distorting it. That’s the main reason, IMO, that Romney seemed like such a ‘new’ person at that debate, because he was unencumbered by the cemented image Obama and the press had been casting him to be for the last year.

    Character and message assassination is the left’s forte, along with their media allies. One-on-one events, though, interacting with live audience, makes it more difficult for dem/media spoilers to alter the transmission, and truth has an opportunity to resonate more and stick with the listeners.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 6

  161. john personna says:

    @jan:

    Not only is Romney speaking out and correcting the misstatements of his opponents (seen in the last debate), but so are the people! Here’s a story about a woman at a GOP rally who the dems immediately spun as calling Ryan out, when all she did was ask a question.

    The Epistemic Closure is strong in this one.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  162. JEBurke says:

    @john personna: Yeah, well, I’ve been dealing with these and related data in my work for 50 years, and to repeat, I have no idea whether the September report was not on the level, but I do believe it is utterly naive to think manipulation is impossible because BLS employees or career professionals (they are all career professionals at CIA and the Pentagon too). Taking the entire contexf into account, particularly the yawning gap between the household and payroll surveys, I still say it is mighty convenient that the headline rate dropped 0.3 percent to a level not seen since 2009 one month before the election.

    At the same time, I doubt it will affect the election’s outcome one bit.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

  163. john personna says:

    @JEBurke:

    Mr. Burke, I pointed you to a chart showing that the 0.3 percent gyration is not at all unusual. You don’t dispute that. You just say that you’ve been dealing with data, and think that data in general can be manipulated.

    That is certainly not a proof. It is an argument by non-proof.

    You should be ashamed.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  164. john personna says:

    @JEBurke:

    (Since people rob banks, and JEBurke is a person, it is entirely reasonable to believe JEBurke robs banks.)

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0

  165. Jim Henley says:

    Hey guys, following up on Allen West, which chapter of Rules for Radicals explains how coalitions of the powerless can falsify official statistics? Cause that sounds like a wicked cool book.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  166. anjin-san says:

    I’ve been dealing with these and related data in my work for 50 years

    That’s a hell of a career you have going there. So you have been working on this daya since 1962 and you are still at it?

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0

  167. David M says:

    @jan:

    That’s the main reason, IMO, that Romney seemed like such a ‘new’ person at that debate, because he was unencumbered by the cemented image Obama and the press had been casting him to be for the last year.

    Or may it was that Romney contradicted many of his previously held positions and misrepresented the effects his policies would have.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0

  168. al-Ameda says:

    @Eric Florack:

    Actually, Bush had nothing to do with that. They foresaw. based on the campaign rhetoric of Obama, a real estate market collapsing with Obama… and reacted accordingly.

    Speaking of “actually” … actually, that is a preposterous statement, and has no basis in reality.

    Like or Dislike: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0