A Glance Into The Crystal Ball For 2012
So, what's next?
Jazz Shaw has a post about predictions for the upcoming year over at Hot Air, and that’s kind of inspired me to come up with a list of my own. Please note I reserve the right to claim that these predictions were made under the influence of New Year’s Eve pre-partying if it turns out that I was completely wrong.
- Mitt Romney will be the nominee of the Republican Party for President of the United States. This will largely be an accepted fact by the end of January after Romney (1) either wins Iowa or comes in second to Ron Paul, (2) wins New Hampshire, (3) wins or places a close second in South Carolina, and (4) wins Florida.
- Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum will effectively end their campaigns before the Florida primary
- Newt Gingrich will last through the end of February, but will end his campaign when he is trounced in the Illinois Primary at the end February
- The effort to get any candidates other than Mitt Romney and Ron Paul on the Virginia ballot, either by legislation or litigation, will fail
- Ron Paul will stay in the Presidential campaign until the end, and will demand as the price for his loyalty to the GOP (if not his formal endorsement of Romney, which will not happen) a prime time speaking slot at the Republican National Convention, which he’ll get. Paul will not run as a third-party candidate.
- Mitt Romney will select Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell as his Vice-Presidential running mate, although much of the pre-convention press coverage will involve speculation about Chris Christie
- Chris Christie will be the keynote speaker at the Republican National Convention
- The American Elect effort to create an independent candidate for President will end in failure
- Barack Obama will be re-elected to a second term, but the Republicans will hold on to the House of Representatives and take control of the Senate by a narrow majority.
- Elizabeth Warren will defeat Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate race. The Democrats, meanwhile, will lose Senate seats in Nebraska, North Dakota, Missouri, Florida, and Montana.
- There will be rumors in November of a challenge to John Boehner for Speaker of the House, but Boehner will hold on to his position in the end
- The Supreme Court will uphold the Constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate.
- The Supreme Court will strike down Arizona’s immigration law
- Jon Corzine will be indicted for activities related to the collapse of MF Global
- There will be no indictments, resignations, or attempts at impeachment related to the “Fast & Furious” scandal
- There will be no outside military intervention in Syria
- The Egyptian military will break its agreements to implement democratic reforms in the face of the rise of Islamist parties, leading to more protests
- Tensions in the Persian Gulf will increase, with at least one incident involving exchanges of fire between an American naval vessel and Iranian forces
- North Korea will create a crisis on the Korean peninsula. It will last about a month, and then calm down.
- Russia will see more protests over fixed elections
- The Green Bay Packers will win Super Bowl XLVI
- The Alabama Crimson Tide will defeat the LSU Tigers in the BCS Championship Game, leading to another round of calls for a College Football playoff
- Starting sometime around November, the media will start hyping the “Mayan Apocalypse” story. Nothing will happen on December 21, 2012.
I’ve asked other OTB contributors to add their own predictions to this post, and feel free to add your own, or criticize mine, in the comments.
And, Happy New Year!
UPDATE (Rob Prather):I have two predictions:
- Alabama will beat LSU in the BCS Championship game.
- President Obama will win reelection. He’s been blessed with terrible opponents.
UPDATE (James Joyner):
- Mitt Romney will be the Republican nominee. None of the Not Romneys will mount a serious challenge once voting begins.
- No candidate other than Obama or Romney will win any votes in the Electoral College.
- Rob Portman of Ohio will be the vice presidential pick, helping push Romney over the top in a crucial swing state. It won’t be enough.
- Barack Obama will be narrowly re-elected, owing to a mild resurgence in the economy and the weakness of the Republican message.
- The Supreme Court will strike down the Constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate by a 5-3 margin, with Elena Kagan abstaining.
- The Supreme Court will strike down Arizona’s immigration law.
- The United States will not go to war or engage in significant kinetic military action with either Syria, Iran, or North Korea.
- The Arab Spring will widely be seen as a lost opportunity this time next year, with Tunisia serving as the outlier.
- The Eurozone will consist of fewer countries than it does now at year’s end.
- An NFC team will win Super Bowl XLVI. It will not be the Green Bay Packers.
- While I will be rooting for my graduate alma mater, the Alabama Crimson Tide, they will again lose to the LSU Tigers in the BCS Championship Game owing to inferior special teams play.
- The 14-team Southeastern Conference will again have a representative in next year’s BCS Championship Game.