Outside the Beltway

The numbers coming out of the first few weeks of early voting confirms the enthusiasm gap that pollsters have been talking about for months.

Voters head to the polls in thirteen days, and current indications are that they’ll be handing a big victory to the Republican Party.

It’s looking less and less likely that the GOP will gain control of the Senate, but they’re going to come awfully close,, and that might be just as good from their point of view.

Republicans are suddenly targeting — and Democrats in some cases are conceding — House seats that were until recently considered out of play.

No Senate candidate with a lead of more than 5.5 points in the polling average, with 30 days to go in the race, has lost his race since 1998: these candidates are 68-0.

Even with some key seats trending Democrat, Republicans are primed to take over both Houses of Congress come November 2.

For the moment, the Tea Party movement is helping pull the GOP out of a slump that seemed like it would continue for a long time. Will it last, or will the movement end up doing for Republicans what the left has done for Democrats ?

While it will be difficult, the idea that Lisa Murkowski could win a write-in bid to retain her Senate seat is not at all implausible.

Christine O’Donnell’s victory in Delaware Tuesday has made it less likely that the GOP will be able to take control of the Senate, but they still have an excellent shot of making substantial gains that will transform Congress’s Upper House.

The Delaware GOP now has, according to Nate Silver, a 17% chance of winning the Senate seat.

The Nevada Senate race is, in many ways, a three-way in which none of the above could be a spoiler for Angle.

There’s not as much conservative unity on the gay marriage issue as there used to be.

A special tax rate for millionaires wouldn’t raise much additional revenue but it would make journalists feel better.

That attitudes towards gay marriage varies by state won’t surprise you. The degree to which it does just might.

What impact will Judge Walker’s decision on Proposition 8 have on politics in 2010 and beyond ?

Nate Silver provides yet more bad news for Democrats: When screening for “likely voters,” Republican numbers look even better.

Markos Moulitsas gets a lesson in caveat emptor from his former pollster.