Donald Trump’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Week
It's been a bad week for Donald Trump, something he can ill-afford with less than 100 days left until Election Day.
To say the least, it’s been a rough week for the Trump campaign. After letting himself get tied down in an unwinnable battle with a Gold Star Muslim-American family, Trump woke up early in the week to learn that the Democratic National Convention had given Hillary Clinton at least enough of a bounce in the polls to wipe out whatever gains Trump had received from the previous week’s Republican National Convention. With Trump continuing to go off-message, reports began to circulate about the inevitable chaos inside the campaign itself and elsewhere in the Republican Party and even fanciful reports about RNC officials possibly moving to push him off the ticket while Trump himself began suggesting that the only reason he might lose is that the elections would be ‘rigged’ against him. In the meantime, new national polls showed Clinton’s lead over Trump growing, and state-level polls showed that Trump’s fortunes in the battleground states identified by his campaign were not going well at all. Now, to top the week off, another set of national polls shows Clinton continuing to expand her lead while Trump racks up numbers that suggest history-making losses and demonstrates just how difficult a job Trump has ahead of him.
First up, a new McClatchy/Marist poll gives Clinton a fifteen point lead, and puts Trump at levels not seen in some time:
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton has surged to a 15-point lead over reeling, gaffe-plagued Republican Donald Trump, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.
Clinton made strong gains with two constituencies crucial to a Republican victory – whites and men – while scoring important gains among fellow Democrats, the poll found.
Clinton not only went up, but Trump also went down. Clinton now has a 48-33 percent lead, a huge turnaround from her narrow 42-39 advantage last month.
The findings are particularly significant because the poll was taken after both political conventions ended and as Trump engaged in a war of words with the parents of Army Capt. Humayun Khan, who was killed in an explosion in Iraq 12 years ago while trying to rescue other soldiers.
“This is coming off the Democratic convention, where a bounce is expected,” said Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion in New York, which conducted the nationwide survey.
“What you don’t want is to have the worst week of your campaign,” a characterization many analysts use to describe Trump’s recent days.
Other polls have shown Clinton in the lead, though Marist’s is the largest so far.
Among poll respondents, Clinton was seen more often as a potential president. Fifty-three percent said they would find her acceptable; 39 percent felt that way about Trump.
Francis Duffy, 76, an Upper Darby, Pennsylvania, Republican, said she was voting for Clinton because she found Trump to be scary. “I just don’t feel that Donald Trump is qualified. I think he’s a loose cannon,” she said.
In a four-way race, Clinton retains her lead. She gets 45 percent to Trump’s 31 percent.Libertarian Gary Johnson has 10 percent, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein has 6 percent.
The new survey showed Clinton has cut sharply into the Republican nominee’s advantages in every ethnic and racial group.
After a bitter battle with rival Bernie Sanders, the independent Vermont senator whose supporters fought all the way to the convention, she has solidified her strength among Democrats, 90 percent of whom now back her, up from 83 percent last month.
Jorge Vietes, 78, a native of Argentina who lives in Stockton, California, sided with Sanders in the primary, and is not swayed by Trump’s efforts to woo Sanders’ voters.
“I have no choice but to go for Clinton,” said Vietes, an independent voter. “Trump is kind of a crazy guy.”
Trump gets the nod from just 79 percent of Republicans, down from 85 percent last month. Some top GOP officials have put distance between themselves and the billionaire businessman, with some saying they’ll back Clinton.
Men had been the bedrock of Trump support. Last month, he was up by 14 percentage points among men; he’s now down 8.
Clinton remains strong with women, among whom she holds a 20-point advantage.
Clinton wins moderates, 50-27 percent. She is far ahead with black voters, 93-2 percent, and with Latinos, 55-26 percent.
More encouraging for Clinton, 57 percent of her backers say their vote is for her, while 40 percent say it’s largely an anti-Trump vote.
Next up, the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll gives Clinton a nine point advantage:
Hillary Clinton has jumped out to a nine-point lead over Donald Trump, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll shows, nearly doubling the five-point advantage she held over her Republican foe before the political conventions.
In a head-to-head matchup, the Democratic ticket of Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine receives the support of 47 percent of registered voters, while the Republican ticket of Donald Trump and Mike Pence gets 38 percent, the survey shows. Last month, Clinton led Trump by a margin of 46 percent to 41 percent.
In this latest poll, Clinton enjoys a significant advantage among women (51 percent to Trump’s 35 percent), African Americans (91 percent to 1 percent), all non-white voters (69 percent to 17 percent), young voters (46 percent to 34 percent), and white voters with a college degree (47 percent to 40 percent).
Trump leads among white voters (45 percent to Clinton’s 40 percent), seniors (46 percent to 43 percent), independents (36 percent to 32 percent) and white voters without a college degree (49 percent to 36 percent).
The two candidates are running nearly even among men, at 43 percent for Clinton and 42 percent for Trump.
When Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein are added to the mix, Clinton still retains a nine-point advantage over Trump: Clinton is at 43 percent, Trump at 34 percent, Johnson at ten percent and Stein at five percent.
The lead for Clinton comes not only after both parties held their nominating conventions, but also after Trump was blasted by critics on both sides of the aisle for his treatment of the parents of a Muslim American soldier killed in Iraq in 2004.
A nine-point lead in August of a presidential election year represents a significant gap compared to the past two election cycles.
In 2008, Barack Obama – who ultimately beat Republican John McCain by a 53 percent to 46 percent margin in the November election – did not show such a wide polling advantage over his Republican rival until late October, according to NBC/WSJ polls. In 2012, Obama’s lead over Republican foe Mitt Romney in NBC/WSJ polls never reached nine points throughout the campaign.
These polls show several interesting tidbits, none of which are very good for Trump. First of all, both polls, as well as the Fox News poll show Trump falling below 40% even in head-to-head match-ups that do not include Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein. This puts Trump in territory last seen by Republican nominees such as Barry Goldwater, who got 38.5% of the popular vote in the 1964 Presidential Election, George McGovern, who got 37.5% of the popular vote eight years later in 1972, and George H.W. Bush who received 37.4% of the vote in the 1992 election thanks largely to the presence of Ross Perot in the race. This is significant because Trump had already been polling under 40% in polls that included Gary Johnson either alone or along with the Green Party’s Stein, and it suggests real erosion in his levels of support that will require real work for him to be able to win back. Second, the last three polls have shown Trump getting historically low support from African-Americans of 1-2%. This compares quite unfavorably to George W. Bush, who got 11% of the African-American vote in 2004, and even John McCain, who got 4% of the African-American vote in a race where he was running against the man who would become the first African-American President, and Mitt Romney, who improved on McCain’s numbers somewhat by getting 7% of the African-American vote in 2012. With Obama on the ballot, some Republicans hoped before this election cycle started that the GOP could improve on its numbers with this voting group in 2016. Instead, it stands to do much worse, and that could prove to be problematic both nationally, where the African-American vote accounts for anywhere between 11 to 13% of the electorate, in swing states such as Florida, Virginia, and Ohio, and even in traditionally red states such as Georgia that have large African-American voting age populations.
Looking at the national poll average, Clinton now has a lead of 6.7 points in the head-to-head match-up and 6.6 points in the four-way race, where Trump is now averaging 36.9% and Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson is averaging 8.0%, putting him closer to potential eligibility for the national debates in September and October. The numbers are similar for Pollster for both the head-to-head and three-way race with Johnson included. Perhaps the best way to illustrate the situation that Trump finds himself in, though, is to look at the graph of the poll average for the head-to-head race:
To put this in perspective, what we’re seeing is that, as of today, Clinton is back to levels she last saw in May and Trump is down to levels he last saw in July just prior to the two conventions and in danger of falling back to where he was in June when his average fell below 40% as it had for a brief time in April. The difference between now and then, of course, is that we’re far closer to the election today than we were back then and there’s that much less time for Trump to bounce back or to pivot his campaign. Additionally, the fact that we’re starting to see this trend move into the state-level polling suggests that we’re fast approaching the time when voter opinions are going to solidify to the point where changing minds is going to become more and more difficult. This will become especially true as we get past Labor Day and many states begin to get ready for early voting and early absentee voting, meaning that once we get into September and early October when the debates are taking place many people will have not only made up their minds but also locked in their votes. This will be especially important in states such as Florida and Ohio, where early voting and absentee ballots have played a key role in past elections and are likely to do so again this year.
It’s far too early to say that the race is over for Trump, of course. It’s entirely possible, and indeed probable, that he’ll have a good week at some point in this race or that Hillary Clinton’s campaign will stumble in the way that it stumbled in the race for the Democratic nomination. We’re fast approaching the point, however, where the opportunities to exploit those mistakes and build on any momentum will be short-lived at best. For Trump, the best opportunity to turn the race around may come at the debates, but given the fact that Clinton has proven herself quite adept in a debate with a small number of opponents against both Barack Obama and Barry Sanders, while Trump’s debate experience is limited to the unwieldy multi-candidate debates that typified the GOP race for the nomination, I would not count Trump as a favorite to do well in a face-to-face encounter with the former Secretary of State. However, given the fact that the question heading into that first debate is likely to be whether or not Trump will implode, it’s possible that he’ll do well enough to turn the race around to some degree even if only for a short period of time. Of course, if the polls continue in the direction they’ve been going between now and then it may turn out to be a case of too little, too late.
FWIW, at 3:39 this morning, Trump Tweeted: “The plane I saw on television was the hostage plane in Geneva, Switzerland, not the plane carrying $400 million in cash going to Iran!”
“For Trump, the best opportunity to turn the race around may come at the debates”
All Trump has to do is punch some “bigly liberal” and boom: up 10 points.
It’s a good thing schadenfreude isn’t harmful, because if it were, I’d be in intensive care right now.
Has he really set the bar so low that merely avoiding an epic meltdown would be a victory?
What does that say about him and the Republican Party that nominated him? Wow.
I’m always nervous when it comes to the American electorate and there is quite aways to go. Everything now depends on the polls staying with Hillary. If they close Trump continues and the Republicans stay on board. If they continue to widen, they’ll jump and then who knows what will happen.
At this point it does seem like a tipping point has been reached and the realization that Trump is incapable of being president is spreading outside of both bubbles into the wider world where moderate republicans, Bernie supporters and independents live. No one has to imagine what a Trump presidency might look like, they know- mayhem all day, every day.
Yeah, I think “crazy” is starting to gain traction and will start to spread even to the not-paying-attention segments of the voting public. Crazy is hard to come back from. Especially if you’re crazy.
It confounds me that people are just now beginning to realize that Trump is crazier than an outhouse rat. Wasn’t it obvious all along? Or did you have to live within a 250-mile radius of New York to know that?
@CSK: People don’t pay attention until things are repeated umpteen times. It’s hard for those of us who follow this stuff to fathom, but politics and the political process is really, really boring to a lot of Americans, and they just don’t zero in on it.
When I worked in politics, the shorthand to remember was people start to pay attention around Labor Day, and have a general understanding of issues/the candidates, enough to make a decision, about two weeks out from the election.
Yes, he had a horrible week, but there’s still time for him to close the gap a bit–I highly doubt he’ll be able to turn things around enough to win.
As Michael very astutely points out: it’s awfully hard to come back from crazy.
True about people’s attention span, but the thing about Trump is that he’s been a public figure for 30 years, and he’s always been the same demented churl.
And at this point, I can only see him getting crazier.
@CSK: So many Republicans stuck their heads in the sand throughout the primary season and told themselves it was just an act.
It wasn’t an act.
Adding to the terrible, no good week, former CIA director just endorsed HRC because Trump is dangerous, incompetent and easily manipulated by Putin:
I Ran the CIA, Now I’m Endorsing Hillary Clinton
And the Harvard Republican Club not only refused to endorse him, but called him a “threat to the survival of the Republic”:
Havard Republican Club Rejects Trump
Or they neglected to consider the possibility that so many primary voters would be enchanted by the prospect of handing the nuclear codes to a deranged buffoon.
By my count, it’s been 3 Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Weeks for Trump. The RNC convention was widely panned, the DNC exceeded expectations and then this past week’s been a trainwreck.
I would not be surprised if this is the new normal and we’ll come to note the odd Better Than Expected week.
Trump’s whole candidacy is premised on his being a Winner. It’s also an easy hole in the armor through which to stab at Trump – he NEVER reacts well to being called a loser.
With that kind of dynamic, a death spiral in the polls is as likely as recovery. Yes, there could always be some black swan event, but nothing Trump can do will turn the tide.
The two potentials I’m worried about is a) a female version of the “Bradly Effect” and b) another terrorist attack by ISIS inside the US before the election.
I’m starting to think that aside from Trump’s deranged followers (who seem to want to blow up the US simply because they think they might be able to come out a wee bit better) the rest of the US is realizing that the very last thing you want to do is put the US in the hands of someone who flies off the handle at every opportunity.
Guess we’ll get to see how many Americans are prudent and how many are simply knee-jerk reactionaries as stupid as any ghetto punk.
Stupid, yes. But they’re not really reactionaries any more than they are Republicans or conservatives. They’re populist xenophobes. They have no other ideology than closing America off from the rest of the world and making it white.
@grumpy realist: I’m most afraid of low turn out. If Hillary is way ahead in the polls too many might decide that they don’t need to go stand in line to vote since she’s so far ahead.
Next week should be interesting though. A sane candidate in Trump’s position would hope the spotlight on the Olympics would take some heat off a terrible cycle. However, Trump can’t bear not being in the spotlight, so I wonder what new extremes he might reach to upstage Olympic coverage and stay in the headlines.
We have some real nuts over on the right.
Why doesn’t the idiot pin a swastika on his suit and be done with it.
This is exactly why I’ve been arguing that GOTV matters, even when things appear to be going her way.
@grumpy realist: I get what you are saying about a potential Bradley Effect, but I think that’s a bit unlikely to have a noticeable impact. Women aren’t a true minority population, they represented 53% of the vote in 2012. That blunts, I think, the likelihood of people saying that they are going to vote for the female candidate simply to counter appearance bias. I’m more worried that voters are telling pollsters they aren’t voting for Trump because he’s just become that toxic to support publicly, but they’ll do so in the privacy of the voting booth–or is that what you were getting at?
Oh, my word. Let the Unskewing begin, I guess:
1. Trump cannot stop being Trump. There is a reason almost everyone who does business with him (Ghostwriters, Contractors, Banks, Real Estate Brokers, etc) only do so once. Once they do business with him, and get stiffed, or he reneges on a deal, they have no choice but to not do business with him. Read what his former lawyer says. Read what the ghostwriter on “Art of the Deal” says.
2. Trump cannot stop being Trump. Inside the bubble in which he lives, the world is separated into only two camps: Winners and Losers. He’s a winner (in his mind). Everyone who doesn’t adore him is a loser. it’s really that simple. People who try to over-analyze Trump end up looking foolish. His attacks on McCain, and the Khan family come from this place where anyone who doesn’t suck to him is a “loser”. His kids have the same issue. He truly thinks he’s doing well because he’s getting 20,000 poeple at a rally, regardless what the polls and analytic breakdowns are showing.
3. Trump cannot stop being Trump. He’s too thin skinned for the job of POTUS. His wins in the primary came by locking up 35% of the GOP hard right base, and making the other 16 candidates appear weak by insulting them over and over again. He can’t do that to Clinton. She’s too experienced, too smart, and has too many political professionals working for her. They’re going to not only beat him, they’re going to cut him to into small little pieces, ad by ad, reducing him to spittle-flecked rants on Twitter, causing him to implode even further. His thin-skin reaction to too many tiny squabbles will be magnified by the relentless TV Ads, further inflaming him. He cannot help himself.
I could go on and on, but why bother.
We might look at this point as a high water mark.
Oh, and this is all great news for Donald Trump…. because… Benghazi!
This reminds me of when Sarah Palin made her bizarro comment about Paul Revere’s ride, and her fan club crashed the Wikipedia Paul Revere entry trying to rewrite it to comply with what she had gabbled. Wikipedia had to close the entry to editing.
If George Orwell had written 1984 now, Winston Smith would have been a blogger at Breitbart and an editor at Conservapedia.
Any conservative who wants to blame Trump alone for all this terribleness has to explain to me the meaning of the phrase “reality-based community”.
And co-hosting Infowars with Alex Jones.
And adding to Trump’s bad week is some pretty good unemployment numbers:
255,000 new jobs, slight adjustments to prior 2 months totalling 18,000 more, increases to labor force participation rate and wage growth. Life am good.
You can always tell when things are really bad for Republicans – Jenos and Guarneri and the rest disappear. They come piling back in when they think they’ve got something, which lately they just never do.
Where’s the World’s Greatest Businessman to explain how 255,000 jobs is a bad, bad thing and unskew the polls? Where’s Jenos to defend Cheetoh Jesus, what’s Trump gotta do, shoot an unarmed black man? Where’s JKB the Great Patriot to explain how Putin’s butt boy is the next Ronald Reagan?
Even the scumbags like Newt and Rudy are looking for foxholes to dive into.
Actually, I’ve been meaning to ask JKB about whether he wishes to revise his theory from a couple of weeks ago that “This convention bump for Trump probably has teeth.”
Yeah, but with that they have to watch themselves. Look what happened to Ailes.
Now, now. Be kind to Nehlen. There’s absolutely no reason why someone running for Congress should be aware that U.S. citizens can’t be deported, is there? That’s really esoteric knowledge.
It’s been a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad week for Democrats, too. However, the media is in full Democrats-with-bylines mode, so Trump’s getting the full Palin, while Hillary and co. are getting the Full Obama, complete with tongue.
1) ObamaCare is falling apart pretty much as the critics all predicted it would.
2) Hillary is now telling everyone that the FBI said that she never lied about her email server, which was so outrageous that even the Washington Post gave her 4 Pinocchios.
3) It came out (as alluded to above) that Obama bought the freedom of Americans being held by Iran with $400 million — in cash, so much cash that it had to be put on pallets and flown in on a cargo jet.
None of that got any play here, of course, because the authors are totally in Hillary’s bag. But it did happen.
And since I was so sorely missed, let me catch up on the Khan parents situation: Trump should have treated it like Hillary did the families of the people killed at Benghazi. That means that the principal says nothing about it, leaving it to the proxies to do the heavy lifting. In that case, one of the proxies was a writer for GQ, who said of the mother of one of those killed that he’d “like to beat her to death.”
Then the proxies could mention that Captain Khan was killed not because he was a Muslim, but because he was an American; that he was killed by Muslim fundamentalists; and he was killed fighting in a war that Hillary voted for.
All things, except for the being a Muslim part, also apply to the four Americans killed in Benghazi. But Hillary didn’t just vote for that war, she championed it.
This would be quite unprecedented: the historical pattern is that the candidate who is ahead does better than the polls expect, because the other candidate’s voters become demoralized and don’t vote.
Well, all right then.
Put on your purple shroud, your Nike’s, have a complimentary bowl of apple sauce, and get ready to board the Comet Hale-Bopp – it’s coming for you, greet it.
Oh, and since I’m here anyway, let me expound a little theory I’ve been kicking around.
All politicians are liars. The distinction is in what kind of liar they are. Let me offer three examples.
1) Joe Biden is a bullshitter. He says stuff that is just plain bullshit. But he’s the type that tends to actually believe his bullshit, and he’s so darn affable that people say “that’s just Joe being Joe” and let it slide.
2) Donald Trump is a bullshit artist. He bullshits, but pretty much everyone knows it’s bullshit. It’s his opening gambit (as he described in his book) — he stakes out an extreme opening position to give himself bargaining room. He’s gotten away with it because people tend to understand that it’s not carved in stone, but a starting point.
3) Hillary Clinton is a pathological liar. To her, “truth” doesn’t mean much; she simply spouts whatever story she thinks will serve her best, and trusts her sycophants to back her up. And they do. Which is how you get the “sniper fire in Tuzla” fabrication, the whole email mess, and a host of other incidents where she could have simply told the truth from the outset, but she is constitutionally incapable of doing so.
I’ve been putting forth a thought for a while, but this week Austin Bay put it better than I have: the people who are so upset about what Trump says have to go through incredible mental gymnastics to excuse or ignore what Hillary has done.
I have a new metaphor for this election: voting for Trump is voting for playing Russian Roulette with a .44 Magnum. But voting for Hillary is voting for playing Russian Roulette with a shotgun. You know exactly what she is, how crooked she is, how she has already declared war on the 2nd Amendment and half the 1st, you know she has a long, impressive resume’ filled with many astonishing failures, and you know exactly what you’ll get.
Which is a few victories in areas where she will make things worse, and a long string of failures that will somehow not be her fault.
For anyone who still cares about the truth, Hillary Clinton Is One of America’s Most Honest Politicians
I know it’s shocking to think one of our resident GOP/Trump
flufferstrolls might not be telling the truth….
…that he didn’t actually write.
Good job of illustrating your world-weary cynicism by falling for the very bullshit you claim to be immune to.
You are almost as dumb as Trump, and almost as much of a predictable toddler. I bait you, and up you pop, which of course reveals that you’ve been lurking and have been too scared/depressed to say anything. I jerk your string and there you are! Like magic!
Yes, it’s been a TERRIBLE time for Democrats. Why, Nate Silver still thinks Trump has an 8% chance! I can barely hold back the tears!
You know my favorite part of the polling? Trump’s running worse than Romney among white men. Gotta love that, right? His only really strong demographic appears to be inbred evangelical snake-handlers without a grammar school education. That’s you, right?
But never fear: Benghazi! Iranian money! Hillary is a woman! The horror! It’s all gonna work out fine for your fellow Trumpers: Putin, David Duke, Al Baghdadi. . .
Yes. The only thing keeping Trump afloat is what in other circumstances conservatives like to complain about as “the soft bigotry of low expectations.”
I’m old enough to remember the Quayle/Bentsen veep debate. For the most part Quayle stood there looking shell-shocked. But every now and again he’d blurt out some random talking point. Much of the press the next day described it as really getting his message out. However, there was pretty much no getting around Bentsen’s “I knew John Kennedy … you’re no John Kennedy.” line.
@David M: ‘For anyone who still cares about the truth,” Mother Jones is a great place to avoid.
Jenos, if “everyone” knows Trump is a bullsh!tter (I’d go further and say he’s a pathological liar, since he lies in situations where he’d be better served by not lying), then why do his followers believe anything he says? About The Wall, for example?
The Trumpkins don’t adore Trump because he’s a mildly entertaining freak show; they adore him because they believe he’s telling hard truths about the things they want to hear.
Your defining character trait is a complete lack of interest in the truth, so I’m not sure why you read and responded to a comment specifically not addressed to you.
I’ve just seen HRC at a meeting taking questions from black and Latino journalists, and I have to say, as an objective observer, that she looked and sounded pretty Presidential to me.
Yes, the email thing is still very difficult, and obviously uncomfortable for her, but she came across, at least to me, as someone who is calm, thinks about what she says, and has the temperament to be leader of your country.
If seems, to me anyway, that if DT is hanging their hopes on the email stuff, it won’t be enough.
Listening to Ben Carson at the moment on CNN – really can’t understand where he’s coming from.
Just my £1’s worth.
@Jenos Idanian: Dearie, who cares what you think?
Just seen that DT has apparently just admitted to NOT seeing a video of crate of cash being unloaded in Iran…..
@Concerned UK Citizen:
We have scientists at work on this question. So far they lean toward Neptune.
Don’t have to read the rest of this post, obviously the poster is delusional
@Jenos Idanian: @Jenos Idanian: You have been marinading in the Conservative Echo Chamber, haven’t you.
@Concerned UK Citizen:
Don’t listen to Ben Carson, you’ll just get a headache. He’s coming from some arcane Jeebusland that only he understands.
From what I’ve just seen of HRC, the debate is going to be a humiliating bloodbath.I’m already sort of feeling sorry for DT…..
@bookdragon: I also worry about Stein or Johnson siphoning off a lot of votes if people feel it’s safe to make a protest vote. I really wish they’d both ask themselves if they want to risk being the Ralph Nader of 2016.
Good news: Jenos will be receiving a Lifetime Achievement Award at the Dunning-Kruger Hall of Fame. Hard work pays off.
Neither can I.
@Jenos Idanian: That’s the most incoherent analogy I’ve seen in a long time. My illiterate (and proud of it) students at the mill-town JC I taught at did better analogies than that.
I would hope that this would disabuse you of such a notion.
Donald Trump Won’t Stop Joking About Banging His Daughter
@gVOR08: The recent flap I have enjoyed was the reported “crash” of a “near-equal” split between Ryan and his Trump-supporting rival to Ryan now being some ridiculous percentage ahead. This, of course, has been taken as “evidence” by the RWNJs that The Whole System Iz Rigged.
The fact that the first “survey” was an online push poll at Breitbart and worth exactly what you’d expect a place like that would generate has totally slipped their tiny little minds….
Note to idiots: just because the world doesn’t work out the way you think it should doesn’t mean what happened isn’t real.
I did say “sort of” 🙂
I’m a softie and don’t like to see people, however odious “, humiliated in front of millions……… But I think I’ll live, and my world will keep on turning, when it happens to DT.
After all, every rule has an exception
That tickled my chuckle-buds!
IRS exonerated of targeting AstroTurf groups subject of double jeopardy political witch hunt.
DC Circuit revives IRS lawsuits for discrimination against conservative groups
@Concerned UK Citizen: watched the same press conference as well, and actually replayed it to be sure I heard correctly.
What’s she talking about “one hundred emails” ? The first time I heard it I thought that she had misspoken, but then she said it again “one hundred emails”.
She also said (for the first time that I’ve heard) that she did not know (or knowingly) send or receive emails that were marked as classified.
If, in the case of the three emails that Comey discovered, the three emails were not properly marked as required in the header, but had only (c) buried in the text then her statement still stands as valid.
Oh look, the Conservative Victimhood Tour has returned, full of bitter…
Oh my, I’m sure that James and Doug will be surprised to know that they are in Hillary’s bag…
@Concerned UK Citizen:
I could be wrong, but I have a feeling that Trump will find a way not to debate HRC. He’s already claimed that the debate will be rigged, which gives him a perfect out; his fan club will buy that excuse any day.
Sure, he’ll look like a chickensh!t in front of all but his most ardent devotees, but since he has no chance of winning over anyone else at this point, what does it matter? And between making an epic fool of himself on the debate stage, and looking like a fraidy-cat, the latter option is probably more palatable to him. He has no others.
@CSK: Yeah, actually studying and learning about issues is out of the question.
What a travesty of a candidate.
Well, he did say he saw no need to learn about policy until he had ascended unto the presidency.
That means, I suppose, that he will never have to trouble his head learning about policy.
Hey Jenos – now that you’ve rejoined us, can you tell us a little more about the “vast dumpster fire” that was the Democratic Convention? What’s you assessment of the terrible collateral damage you were telling everyone about?
Inquiring minds want to know…
@anjin-san: I have to say, I can’t figure out whether people like Jenos are just trolling us for the lulz, or whether they actually believe what they say.
That’s the main problem of the internet–that no matter how crazy a conspiracy theory you generate, you can find at least one alt-news group devoted to it. It’s the coalescence of the nuts into their own wee echo chambers, topped off with an huge dollop of solipsism, which allows them to ignore any data/evidence invalidating their ideas.
Much like the Republican Party, come to think of it….how many of them still believe in supply-side economics?
@grumpy realist: I can no longer separate between instances that I think are manifestations of Dunning-Kruger and Poe’s Law.
It almost has to be trolling at this point.
says the person linking to PJMedia. The irony burns.
I don’t think the GOP is gonna get back on its feet until it can get rid of its base.
That sounds impossible, but think of the four or five commenters here who best represent the GOP base. Is there any other sizeable group of people who will sign on to that BS? Anyone who will associate with that element?
No. So, I don’t think they’ll decide to do it yet, there are several fine excuses they’ll have when they lose with trump. But that’ll be the 6th popular vote loss in 7 times, and the trend is down. When they lose again in 2020, worse will have come to worst.
I’m just glad we liberals will have the SCOTUS 5-4 by next summer.
@gVOR08: To those who may be contemplating a vote for Jill Stein, please listen to her interview on “Press Play” with Madeline Brand (available on iTunes). She sounded like she was on speed, filibustered every question, was frequently disjointed and incoherent, and refused to answer (twice) Brand’s question about whether she was concerned about throwing the election to Trump. Stein is apparently a medical doctor who has (or had) anti-vaccination views. I came away feeling that she should team up with Dr. Ben (“gifted hands”) Carson.
I really am beginning to think that DT will drop out if the race within the next 30 days (if not sooner)
I never really understood why he decided to run in the first place
Anyone with his track record of multiple bankruptcies; leaving suppliers and contractors unpaid – resulting in quite a few of them going bankrupt themselves; his shocking lack of knowledge of the world in general; his inability to take any criticism (real or imagined); and the fact that, literally, every other sentence be utters is a blatant life, would be running and hiding from any campaign for any post.
@Concerned UK Citizen: Yes, it’s quite infuriating that behavior that would have immediately deep-sixed any other candidate just gets a wave and a pass from his acolytes.
I would have thought the lack of his tax forms would have done him in, but it’s amazing how many excuses his followers find for him.
Methinks Trump embodies the sort of behavior they wish they could carry out in their own lives. Rich, able to replace a wife whenever she gets a little shop-worn, able to scream “YOU’RE FIRED” at anyone they dislike, never having to carry out any self-control…..
@dmichael: It’s the standard run-for-my-ego situation. She’s the far-left version of Donald Trump.
DT seems to believe that, because his rallies attract thousands; this accurately represents a country of 320+ millions – even though those attending are obviously fully paid up members of the flat earth / the universe revolves around the Earth society.
The man is totally driven by ratings/likes on twitter
@Concerned UK Citizen:
I largely suspect he saw bumps in his brand recognition numbers the last few times he ran (I think this is what, run #3? or is it #4?). He is likely short on cash, decided to dive in, bump up his brand, and then go back to selling steaks or water or have more golfers join his clubs and that would infuse enough cash to keep the family business going.
After reading the Foursquare data report that shows foot traffic at his properties going down, I have a feeling he really, really misread this one. He could well be driving his business into the ground, and I don’t see how he or the kids can fix this.
Over the long run, the GOP would probably be better off if it could establish itself as a sort of pro-military, pro-jobs center-right party with an agenda that could appeal to mainstream conservatives but also peel away portions of the Democratic base.
But the short-run pain would be substantial. In essence, they would be creating the catalyst for the formation a third party that would have some regional strength in the South and would probably be large enough elsewhere that the Democrats would end up winning more pluralities and having a lock on the White House. So that probably won’t happen.
You’re probably going to have to wait for demographics to naturally catch up with them. If population shifts can turn more red states blue or purple for presidential races — in time, this could happen in Georgia, Texas and Arizona, for example — then there will be more pressure to change. Just as long as current circumstances continue to favor the GOP in the House and in many state-level races (in which the Democrats are often quite vulnerable), there is not much motivation to change. Trump will be shown the door, but there will be no epiphany.
Re: foursquare report
Firstly, thanks for the link
Secondly, on the face of it, you may have a really good point, and thirdly, perhaps the saddest thing is that he’s using the Presidency of your country as a marketing tool.
@CSK: That’s kind of what I was thinking. Trump’s not going to debate her. Probably – just like his tax returns – that also will not be enough to disqualify him in the eyes of his adoring fans.
“Trump will be shown the door… ”
The problem is that the door will be at the bottom of the pile of rubble that used to be the Republican Party
Nothing disqualifies Trump in the eyes of his adoring fans. He was quite right–I’ll give him credit for expertly assessing a mark–when he said that he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and they wouldn’t abandon him.
When you have fixated on someone as a savior, as the Trumpkins have, nothing will dissuade them.
@Concerned UK Citizen:
I wouldn’t assume that. The US has a two-party system and will continue to have one for some time to come. The Republicans will have to perform some repairs but they won’t be replaced or forced to completely reinvent themselves (unfortunately).
The Republicans are actually stronger than the Democrats at the state level, and that provides benefit to the GOP in the House of Representatives because the states create the Congressional districts. For example, the GOP won 57% of the 2014 House races even though it received only 51% of the vote, and some of that difference is arguably due to gerrymandering. Trump is just one part of the puzzle.
@CSK: Jenos, if “everyone” knows Trump is a bullsh!tter (I’d go further and say he’s a pathological liar, since he lies in situations where he’d be better served by not lying), then why do his followers believe anything he says? About The Wall, for example?
Geez, and they say I don’t get out much.
When you lay out your opening position, you don’t say “this is my opening position, I’m willing to compromise for a lot less.” You hold that opening position until the negotiations start for real, and you see what the other side’s opening position is, and what they’re willing to give.
On immigration, Trump says “wall” and “deport.” What’s the other side’s position? “Comprehensive immigration reform.” WTF does that mean? It means that the other side isn’t ready to start bargaining. It means that they don’t feel the need to put out anything of substance, because they’re convinced that they’ll get their way eventually.
Hillary just makes up shit to make herself look good. Why did she have that email server? It was a “mistake.” And pretty much every one of her statements on it was proven to be a lie.
Then Bill had a private meeting with the AG, Hillary has her unrecorded meeting with the FBI, and Comey says that she told the truth at that meeting. Now Hillary says that Comey said she told the truth to the FBI AND that what she told the FBI was “consistent” with all the stories she spun that have all been proven lies.
Here’s the reason she set up that server: because she didn’t want to submit to any kind of supervision or review, and wanted to maintain control of her records and keep them away from everyone. She learned that lesson when she worked on the Watergate investigation, and saw what happened when Nixon lost control of the records. She wanted to evade the laws regarding Congressional oversight and FOIA, because she put her political security ahead of national security.
And here’s one more truth bomb you won’t here from the hosts: this is not a Left vs. Right election, this is an insiders vs. outsiders election. The elites who have run things into the toilet are fighting for their political survival against insurgencies from both sides. The Democrats saw it coming enough to stack the deck for their candidate, and managed to fend off the Sandernistas. The GOP wasn’t cynical enough, and lost to Trump.
Trump isn’t the problem, Trump is the symptom. And focusing on Trump as if he’s the problem is… well, I find it amusing.
Here’s another problem: pretty much everything being said about Trump was pretty much what was said against Romney, McCain, Bush 43, Dole, Bush 41, Reagain, and so on. Every Republican candidate is Hitler.
You’ve been crying wolf for decades. And now you’re saying “But this time, he REALLY is Hitler!”
My response? 1) You’ve been lying about that for decades, so you’re probably lying about it now.
2) And if you’re right this time? Good. You deserve Hitler.
@Jenos Idanian: yeah, I remember that jousting before in history. Last time we did it, we ended up with WWI.
@Jenos Idanian: Shorter Jenos: Man, I got nothing. I hope some white guy shoots a black dude so I can make a fool of myself celebrating the murder.
I am unaware that Democrats ever referred to GHW Bush, GW Bush, Bob Dole, John McCain or Mitt Romney as Hitler like.
I am however aware that since the Great Recession of 2008-09 Republicans have been saying variously and continuously that the sky in falling: (1) ACA (aka Obamacare) would kill jobs and destroy the economy; (2) stimulus spending (aka deficit spending) would cause hyper inflation and destroy the economy; (3) the bailout of General Motors was a cynical move to reward unions and socialize the auto industry, cost taxpayers billions, and destroy the economy; and (4) the economy is a failure, there has been no improvement since Obama took office, ergo, he destroyed the economy.
None of the Republican “the sky is falling” assertions have turned out to be true.
@Jenos Idanian: Wow. Tripling down on the emails. It’s all you’ve got. Trump is busy making up videos he’s seen that don’t exist, promising thousands of times to build a wall you now say he has no intention of building, insisting that the election is rigged, that crime is up, that jobs are down, and that every single fact is actually a lie…
…and you keep squawking about the emails.
Oh, and insisting that when Trump lies he’s not really lying, he’s just negotiating, even though there is no negotiation, there’s nobody to negotiate with, and he swears he’s telling the truth.
What a sad little dumpster fire of a “man” you’ve made yourself.
Of course not. If you are Donald Trump you say “F**k you, F**k your mother, andF**k your entire s**tty country”
Than you wonder why that instead of having a negotiator sitting across the table from you, you have an entire country pondering how they might make your life more difficult, and which of your enemies they should be reaching out to…
When are you going to swallow your pride and admit that Jenos what right? George Zimmermann was a stand up guy putting himself on the line to keep his neighborhood safe.
Jenos, there’s a big difference. Trump isn’t negotiating a deal with the electorate. He’s promising them he’ll do things. There’s a big, big difference. Yuge, you could say. You don’t “negotiate” with the people on your side. You negotiate with an opponent. Unless he regards his supporters as opponents, the comparison just…doesn’t…work.
Do you think the Trump fan club will be thrilled when he “negotiates” that 30-foot-high wall down to a barbed-wire fence and some “No Trespassing” signs? Sure, he can say he “won.” Will his fans be happy–the ones who chant “build the wall” at all his rallies–with this? I don’t think so. They want the wall he promised he’d build them.
Donald Trump will pull no punches in losing this election. That is his goal.
*SHUDDER* Ohhhh, the Nixon comparison…that’ll certainly be a devastating line of attack…
In other words, the Democrats wouldn’t let someone who wasn’t a Democrat take over their party, unlike the Republicans…
Hopefully you’ll find his spectacular defeat just as amusing…
Wow! That’s exactly what Rush and Sean were saying today. Do you write for them or do I have it backwards?
The only thing that’s worse than Jenos taking himself seriously is for the rest of you to do it, too.
On his best day, the guy has a room temperature IQ. In metric. Not worth it.
@Pch101: Had to get the FL alligator trappers take a 5footer out of my retention pond the other day. One of my neighbors had been feeding it I guess because it would come right up to the bank when you stood there. Was worried about pets and grandchildren. They kill the gators they take and I don’t like doing that but whatchagonnadue?
Don’t feed the trolls.
@JohnMcC: “They kill the gators they take and I don’t like doing that but whatchagonnadue?”
If they’ve been feeding it, then it has to be killed; as you noticed, it’s lost its fear of people.
@anjin-san: Yes. The other problem is that once you burn your partner, either by suddenly turning around and refusing to pay them, or walking away in bankruptcy, there’s a funny thing that happens: they refuse to play with you any more. Which is why Trump is down to leaching loans off a mid-size German bank and whatever the Russian oligarchs are graciously inclined to throw his way. (Ahem you may want to think about the security implications of the latter.)
What does this mean in the context of international relations, where you have to keep going back and talking with the other country, over and over again?
Namely that you’re hosed. You’ve shown you can’t be trusted. The other side has no reason to be reasonable in their demands, or cut you any slack, or in fact even answer your communications.
During my commute drive home I’ve actually listened to two interviews with Jill Stein (why I listened to a second interview I cannot explain, perhaps it was a sympathy re-visit on my part.)
She was very unimpressive. I do not understand how anyone … anyone … who has actually listened to an interview with Jill Stein is still motivated to vote for her. In the abstract, many are interested in the Green Party, however at some point abstraction gives way to reality, and to me, in her own way, Jill Stein is as much a dissembling talking-point oriented politician as any generic Democratic or Republican politician. That said, there are Berners in my neighborhood who plan to vote for Stein, they can’t speak too highly enough of her.