2018 Midterm Projections

For better or worse, here are my projections for the midterm elections.

Could Losing Congress Actually Help Trump?

The GOP is likely to lose control of the House of Representatives tomorrow, but could this actually help Trump?

Two Days Away, A Split Decision Congress Seems Likely

With less than forty-eight hours to go until voters head to the polls, the odds are pointing to a Democratic House and a Republican Senate.

Today in Terrible Columns

Bret Stephens’ piece this week adds up to not much.

Republicans Worry That Trump’s Inflammatory Rhetoric Will Backfire

National Republicans are worried that the President’s concentration on hot-button issues could end up backfiring. They should be.

Is Steve King’s Record Of Hatred, Fear, And Xenophobia Finally Catching Up With Him?

Congressman Steve King’s anti-immigrant, xenophobic rhetoric hasn’t bothered his constituents for twenty years, but he suddenly finds himself the focus of controversy and possibly vulnerable. It couldn’t happen to a more well-deserving guy.

National Democrats Are Still Worried About New Jersey

While the numbers seem to show that scandal-plagued Senator Bob Menendez will win re-election on Tuesday, national Democrats aren’t taking any chances.

Trump Ignores “It’s The Economy, Stupid,” In Favor Of Stoking Culture War Fires

Despite the relatively strong economy, President Trump and many other Republicans are relying on the politics of fear to drive voter turnout on Tuesday.

Judge Lets North Dakota Voter ID Law That Discriminates Against Native Americans Stand

A Federal Judge is letting a North Dakota Voter ID law that clearly discriminates against Native Americans stand.

October Delivers A Solid Jobs Report

Jobs Growth in October exceeded expectations, as did wage growth. It’s unclear, though, how long these numbers can be sustained.

As Midterms Near, Trump And The GOP Turn To Fear And Demonization Of Immigrants

As the midterm campaign draws to a close, Donald Trump is returning to the message of xenophobia and fear that dominated his Presidential campaign.

More Xenophobia from POTUS

On Wednesday Trump tweeted out a crass, dishonest ad in hopes of leveraging fear and racism as a political tool.

Bernie Sanders Drops A 2020 Hint

To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders hints that he’s thinking of running for President in 2020.

Democrats Poised To Win Back The House, But Fall Short In The Senate

With one week to go before Election Day, Democrats seem well-positioned to gain control of the House while Republicans seem likely to hold on to the Senate.

Mississippi Senate Race Could Decide Battle For Senate Control

A Senate race in Mississippi could end up being the deciding factor in the battle for control of the Senate.

Kirsten Gillibrand Says She Won’t Run For President In 2020

New York Senator Kirsten Gillibrand says she has no intention of running for President in 2020.

G.D.P. Growth In Third Quarter Was Healthy, But Many Caveats Remain

The economy appears to have grown strongly in the third quarter, but concerns about long-term growth remain.

Trump Spins Tales About A Non-Existent Tax Plan

Donald Trump is talking about a tax cut that appears to exist only in his own mind.

When Donald Trump Calls, The Chinese And Russians Are Listening In

President Trump’s private phone calls are apparently a major source of intelligence for foreign nations.

Keith Ellison Falling Behind In Race For Minnesota Attorney General

Congressman Keith Ellison appears to be falling behind in the race to be Minnesota’s next Attorney General.

Politically, The GOP Tax Cut Has Been A Huge Bomb

Republicans passed a tax cut bill in December they hoped would help in the midterm elections. It has turned out to be a big dud.

Beto O’Rourke Shoots Down 2020 Speculation

Some Democrats and political pundits are putting Texas Congressman Beto O’Rourke forward as a potential 2020 candidate, but he says no.

A Turn Toward Democrats In Florida? Maybe

A new poll shows a decided turn toward the Democratic candidates for Governor and Senator in Florida, but it may be an outlier.

Just One-Quarter Of Americans Think Justice Kavanaugh Told The Truth In Hearing

Most Americans think Justice Kavanaugh was at least partly deceptive in his response to allegations made by Christine Blasey Ford and other women.

Alaska’s Independent Governor Suspends Campaign, Endorses Democratic Nominee

Alaska’s Independent Governor Bill Walker has suspended his campaign and endorsed his Democratic rival in the hope of blocking a Republican victory.

Russian Woman Charged With Interfering In 2018 Elections

The Russians are interfering in our electoral system again, and they’re using our own hyperpartisanship to accomplish their goals.

Trump Praises House Candidate For Assaulting Reporter

President Trump is heaping praise on a Congressman who physically assaulted a reporter.

Joe Arpaio Files Defamation Suit Against The New York Times

Former Arizona Sheriff and Senate candidate Joe Arpaio is suing The New York Times for defamation. He doesn’t appear to have much of a case.

Three Weeks Out, Polls Indicate A Divided Congress In January

With three weeks to go until Election Day, it’s looking like we’ll end up with a Congress divided between Democrats in the House and Republicans in the Senate.

Midterm Outcome Might Not Be Decided On Election Night

For a number of reasons, we may not know the outcome of the midterm elections on Election Night.

Elizabeth Warren Releases DNA Test Results In Response To Trump’s ‘Pocahontas’ Line

Elizabeth Warren has released a DNA report showing that she does indeed have some Native American heritage in her family’s past. That won’t stop conservatives from continuing to attack her, though.

Even Fox News Is Sick Of Trump’s Campaign Rally Speeches

Those rambling campaign rally speeches the President loves to give aren’t getting the kind of coverage they used to, not even from his favorite news channel.

Voter Enthusiasm Shifting Democratic In Wake Of Kavanaugh Fight?

The first poll taken in the wake of the Kavanaugh nomination fight suggests the voter enthusiasm gap is shifting toward Democrats.

Polling In Bellwether Virginia Congressional District Bodes Ill For Republicans

New polling in a bellwether Congressional District in Northern Virginia appears to signal bad news ahead for the GOP.

Majority of Americans Oppose Kavanaugh’s Confirmation

New polling shows that a majority of Americans are opposed to Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation, but the vast amount of Republicans support it.

Chuck Grassley Says He Wouldn’t Consider SCOTUS Nominee In 2020

Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Chuck Grassley says he would not consider a Supreme Court nominee in 2020. But does he really mean it?

Trump Continues To Stoke The Political Fire Of The Kavanaugh Confirmation

With four weeks to go until Election Day, Donald Trump and the Republicans are continuing to stoke the divisions laid bare by the Kavanaugh nomination.

Ted Cruz, ‘Tough as Texas’?

Just when I thought political humor was dead.

Beto O’Rourke Doesn’t Necessarily Want Barack Obama’s Endorsement

Beto O’Rourke isn’t eager to get Barack Obama’s endorsement, but there’s a good reason why.

Brett Kavanaugh Confirmed As 114th Justice Of The U.S. Supreme Court

After a long and contentious battle, Brett Kavanaugh has been confirmed to become the 114th Supreme Court Justice.

Brett Kavanaugh’s Confirmation Assured With Support Of Collins And Manchin

With the support of two holdout Senators, the nomination of Brett Kavanaugh now appears to be all but official.

Kavanaugh Nomination Passes Procedural Test, Final Outcome Still Uncertain

The Senate voted to proceed to an expected floor vote on Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court tomorrow, but the final outcome is still uncertain.

Jobs Report Disappoints, U-3 Unemployment Number At Lowest Point Since 1969

September jobs growth fell short of expectations even as the top-line unemployment rate reached a point unseen since 1969.

Bob Menendez Appears To Be Out Of Danger

Despite his ethical issues, Bob Menendez appears to be solidifying his position in New Jersey’s Senate race.

Kavanaugh Fight Having An Impact On The Midterms?

At least for the moment, the fight over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court appears to be helping Republicans rally their base for November. The question is whether it will last after the fight is over.

F.B.I. Completes Kavanaugh Background Check, Senate Moves Forward On Vote

The F.B.I.’s updated background check is complete and will be reviewed by Senators beginning today. As a result, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is moving forward toward a final vote on the Kavanaugh nomination later this week.

Trump Launches Attack On Christine Blasey Ford

After roughly a week of staying silent, President Trump decided last night to openly mock Dr. Christine Blasey Ford.

White House Has No ‘Plan B’ If Kavanaugh Nomination Fails

The GOP has no alternative but to push forward with the Kavanaugh nomination, because they don’t have a viable alternative at this point.

Could New Jersey Be A Stumbling Block For Democratic Hopes In The Senate?

In an ordinary year with an ordinary candidate New Jersey should be a slam dunk for Democrats. This, however, is not an ordinary year.

Tax Cuts Not Helping Republicans Heading Into November

Contrary to what they believed back in December. Republicans are finding that the tax reform bill is not helping them in the midterm elections.