G.D.P. Growth In Third Quarter Was Healthy, But Many Caveats Remain

The economy appears to have grown strongly in the third quarter, but concerns about long-term growth remain.

About that Unit Root Thing

A decade after the Great Recession, we now have data to answer the question.

Jobs Report Disappoints, U-3 Unemployment Number At Lowest Point Since 1969

September jobs growth fell short of expectations even as the top-line unemployment rate reached a point unseen since 1969.

July Jobs Creation Falls Short Of Expectations, Wage Growth Remains Stagnant

Jobs growth fell short of expectations in July but was still relatively decent. Wage growth, however, remains stubbornly stagnant.

About that 4.1% GDP Growth….

The recent report of 4.1% GDP growth over the previous quarter is indeed welcome news. However, taking a look at the data both recent and in the past and there are some reasons to be concerned about GDP growth in general.

Parsing a Key Phrase from the Trump-EU Press Conference

Trade deals take more than an afternoon chat.

Trump’s Tariffs Set to Destroy More Jobs than The Tax Cut Will Create.

Trump’s trade war will claw back 25% of the growth in GDP, slightly more than 20% of the wage growth and more than wipe out all the jobs his tax cuts would provide.

Trump’s Top Financial Man Called To Testify Before Grand Jury

The man who knows all of Donald Trump’s financial secrets has been called to testify before the Grand Jury investigating Trump lawyer Michael Cohen.

Initial Estimate Shows Economy Grew 4.1% In Second Quarter

The economy grew at an exceptionally strong pace according to the first estimate of GDP growth, but several caveats remain.

Whither the Fiscal Conservative?

Deficits continue to rise.

How Will Trump’s Trade War Impact American Politics?

If President Trump’s trade war continues, it could have a serious impact on the political fortunes of President Trump and his party.

GOP Tax Cuts Not Leading To Increased Wages

Despite Republican hopes, the tax cuts passed by Congress in December are not manifesting themselves in increased wages.

Trump Trashes NATO, Demands Increases In Defense Spending

The NATO Summit is going about as well as can be expected.

Federal Government Set To Borrow $1 Trillion This Year

The Federal Government will borrow more than $1 trillion this year for the first time in more than a half-decade.

Poland Offers $2 Billion For Permanent U.S. Base

Poland makes the U.S. and NATO an offer they might want to consider refusing.

Economic Growth Beats Expectations, But It’s Hardly Impressive

The first estimate of economic growth in the first three months of 2018 beat expectations slightly, but it doesn’t bode well for the immediate future.

Trump Likely to be Favored in 2020

The campaign-agnostic political science models predicted a toss-up in 2016 and again in 2020.

What Trump Economic Boom?

President Trump and his supporters like to claim that the economy has been booming since he became President. A look at the numbers reveals that this is not the case.

A Strong, But Not Spectacular, Report On Economic Growth

The economy grew in the final quarter of 2017, but at a slower pace than earlier in the year and far slower than what the President has promised.

One Year After Trump Withdrew, Canada Forms A New Trans-Pacific Partnership

Just over one year after President Trump’s foolish and ill-informed decision to withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Canada has stepped in to rescue the deal.

GDP Growth Solid In Second Estimate, But Can It Be Sustained?

The new GDP growth estimate shows healthy economic growth in the second quarter, but it’s unclear if it can be sustained.

Second Quarter Sees Modest Economic Growth In Initial Estimate

According to initial estimates, the economy grew at faster pace in the second quarter than at the beginning of the year, but it was hardly anything to write home about.

First Quarter Economic Growth Better Than Initially Forecast, But Further Slowing Is Forecast

Economic growth in the first quarter wasn’t as bad as first estimated, but it still wasn’t very good. And the future is unclear at best.

Trump’s First Quarter GDP Numbers Aren’t Exactly Impressive

The first scorecard for President Trump’s first economic quarter in office isn’t exactly very good.

Trump Administration Introduces Tax Plan, But Comes Up Short On Details

The Trump Administration is out with a tax plan, but it’s seriously lacking in details.

Federal Judge Slaps Down Trump Executive Order On ‘Sanctuary Cities’

Another Federal Court has found another Trump Executive Order unconstitutional.

Montenegro To Become Member Of NATO For No Good Reason

The tiny Balkan nation of Montenegro is set to become the latest member of the NATO alliance despite the fact that there is seemingly no good reason for it.

Republican Obamacare Replacement Bill Pulled From House Floor

A major legislative defeat for Paul Ryan, the House GOP, and President Trump.

Mattis Right on NATO

My latest is out at RealClearDefense.

Republican Budget Hawks Have A Donald Trump Problem

Budget hawks in the GOP face a showdown with Donald Trump’s spending ambitions this year that will likely decide whether we’ll ever get spending under control.

More on Megaprojects

Megaprojects are not a partisan thing. Megaprojects are large projects typically costing more than $1 billion and often tens of billions of dollars and impacting the lives of tens of thousands of people if not millions.

Government Reports Strong Economic Growth In Third Quarter, But It’s Unlikely To Last

The economy grew strongly in the third quarter of the year, but it doesn’t seem likely to last.

Initial G.D.P. Reports Show Stronger Growth In The Summer

Initial reports for the third quarter show strong economic growth during the summer;

August Jobs Report Delivers Mediocre Numbers

A mostly mediocre jobs report for August.

Janet Yellen Hints At Slow Economic Growth, But No Recession, Going Forward

The head of the Federal Reserve tells Congress that the economy is unlikely to enter recession this years, but isn’t exactly going to be booming either.

So…That Stimulus

A report card for the 2009 Stimulus Bill.

Modestly Good News From The March Jobs Report

March’s Jobs Report was good, but could be better.

Economic Growth In Final Quarter Of 2015 Pegged At Anemic 1.0%

Not exactly inspiring economic news from the Commerce Department.

Economy Grows At Anemic 0.7% In Final Quarter Of 2015

An anemic end to 2015 raises concerns about the health of the economy going forward.

Final Report Shows Tepid Economic Growth During Third Quarter

The final report to third quarter Gross Domestic Product shows that growth over the summer was, at best, tepid.

Is Portugal Europe’s Next Greece?

The election of an anti-austerity government in Portugal is raising some concerns.

Economic Growth Was Slightly Better Over The Summer Than Initially Reported

The economy performed a little better than previously reported over the summer. It’s not great, but it’s probably enough to convince the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next month.

Economic Growth Over The Summer Was Quite Sluggish

Gross Domestic Product grew at a sluggish 1.5% in the just-concluded Third Quarter, calling the Federal Reserve’s apparent plan to raise interest rates at some point even further into question.

Final Revision Shows Strong Second Quarter GDP Growth

The final GDP revision for the second quarter showed the economy grew at a nearly four percent rate.

Second Quarter G.D.P. Revision Shows Strong Growth, But Future Weakness Seems Likely

Today’s revision of Second Quarter G.D.P. growth was good news, but it doesn’t seem likely to last.

Economy Rebounds In Second Quarter, But Weakness Remains

The economy rebounded from it’s winter shock, but it still doesn’t seem strong enough to justify the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates.

Meanwhile, China’s Stock Market Has Been Crashing For The Past Month

In the past month, the Chinese stock market has lost more than 1/3 of its value.

Economic Growth Contracts In First Quarter Of 2015

The economy contracted in the first quarter of 2015, and that suggests the rest of the year isn’t going to be very good either.