Congressional Control Still Too Close to Call

We likely won’t know on Election Night.

Midterm Polls Shifting Republican

The race is returning to expectation.

2022 Won’t Be Another 1866

Hope is not a COA.

Push Poll Hackery

Manipulating public opinion with dubious survey research.

The Polls Are Essentially Meaningless But They’re Here to Stay

They could be overstating support for Democrats. Or understating it. Or be more or less right.

Democrats and Meh Voters

For the first time in a long time, Presidential approval numbers and voter preferences aren’t’ aligned.

American Ideological Self-Identification

“Moderate” is up, “Liberal” is down, and “Conservative” is static. What does it mean?

Private vs Public Opinion

What we believe and what we say we believe are often not the same.

Dems in Midterms: You’re Saying There’s a Chance?

A 2020 blowout has long been presumed. But maybe it won’t happen.

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the passing of the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Tuesday, August 10, 2021, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on the passing of the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, Tuesday, August 10, 2021, in the East Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

How Low Can Joe Go?

Approval is down (again).

The January 6 Hearings Didn’t Change Entrenched Opinion

Can American democracy survive its information bubbles?

photo of working, person, military, construction, cutting, team, helmet, build, labor, job, workers, laborer, task, construction worker, sledge hammer photo of working, person, military, construction, cutting, team, helmet, build, labor, job, workers, laborer, task, construction worker, sledge hammer

The Coming Democratic Majority Isn’t Guaranteed

Ruy Teixeira finds that Hispanics aren’t yet woke.

A Great Realignment?

As Democrats gain college-educated voters, they’re losing Hispanics and men.

64 Percent of Democrats Want Biden Replaced in 2024

With record-low poll numbers, the grass roots wants someone new on the ticket next time.

President Joe Biden delivers remarks on lowering the cost for American families Friday, April 22, 2022, at Green River College in Auburn, Washington. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz) President Joe Biden delivers remarks on lowering the cost for American families Friday, April 22, 2022, at Green River College in Auburn, Washington. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

Biden Less Popular Than Worst President Ever

He’s underwater and not going to take it anymore.

Voters in Sour Mood Ahead of Midterms

The polls do not bode well for Democrats.

President Joe Biden calls New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, Wednesday, November 3, 2021, in the Oval Office Study. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz) President Joe Biden calls New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy, Wednesday, November 3, 2021, in the Oval Office Study. (Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz)

Biden a Failure?

Some of his numbers are worse than even Donald Trump’s.

Virginia’s Youngkin Already ‘Underwater’

The Commonwealth’s undemocratic political system is, shockingly, unrepresentative of the will of its people.

Why Are Biden’s Polls So Awful?

A pretty good President has numbers comparable to his historically bad predecessor.

Partisanship and Ideology Redux

Aggregate self-identification doesn’t tell us much, but the breakdowns do.

Are Americans Over January 6?

A new poll offers mixed results.

The Big Lie is Working

A majority of Americans are less than sure that Biden won the 2020 election.

The Kids Are Not Alright

Do young Democrats really hate Republicans more than vice-versa?

Trump Leads Biden in Meaningless Poll

We’re three short years from the next election.

politics outrage shouting politics outrage shouting

The Middle Ain’t Woke

The average American is neither progressive nor all that interested in politics.

The free high-resolution photo of meeting, business, brand, product, help, capital, illustration, text, graph, diagram, euro, dollar, course, banks, pension, network, loss, economy, refugees, policy, cartoon, recession, businessmen, finance, analysis, values, e commerce, stock exchange, pay, investments, profits, shares, economic crisis, financial world, financial crisis, speculation, capital market, trading floor, world economy, economic migrants, financial equalization, loans, commodity futures, date of goods , taken with an unknown camera 03/09 2017 The picture taken with The image is released free of copyrights under Creative Commons CC0. You may download, modify, distribute, and use them royalty free for anything you like, even in commercial applications. Attribution is not required. The free high-resolution photo of meeting, business, brand, product, help, capital, illustration, text, graph, diagram, euro, dollar, course, banks, pension, network, loss, economy, refugees, policy, cartoon, recession, businessmen, finance, analysis, values, e commerce, stock exchange, pay, investments, profits, shares, economic crisis, financial world, financial crisis, speculation, capital market, trading floor, world economy, economic migrants, financial equalization, loans, commodity futures, date of goods , taken with an unknown camera 03/09 2017 The picture taken with The image is released free of copyrights under Creative Commons CC0. You may download, modify, distribute, and use them royalty free for anything you like, even in commercial applications. Attribution is not required.

Americans Feel Economy Much Worse Than it Is

It turns out “the economy” isn’t just one thing.

The Voter Enthusiasm Gap

44% of Republicans strongly disapprove of President Biden’s performance while only 22% of Democrats strongly approve.

Election Polling When There’s No Election Day

Late-breaking news may not matter that much anymore.

Biden’s Polls and Magical Thinking

The President’s approval has plummeted, largely because of factors outside his control.

Two Nations, Indivisible

We’re an incredibly divided country but splitting it into two is impossible.

Biden’s Plunging Job Approval!

Democrats and Independents are losing their enthusiasm. But some perspective is needed.

Most Unvaccinated Americans are Poor

Almost everyone in households making over $75,000 are protected from COVID.

Is the Pandemic Over?

A lot of Americans think so.

Democrats Increasingly Frustrated with Congress

It turns out a 51-50 Senate majority isn’t enough.

Police Perception and Race

A recent poll provides interesting insights.

The Vaccine Hesitant are Primarily Non-Voters

New polling provides useful insights into the problem.

President Donald J. Trump participates in a FOX News Channel virtual town hall entitled America Together: Returning to Work, with co-moderators Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum live from the Lincoln Memorial Sunday, May 3, 2020, in Washington, D.C. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead) President Donald J. Trump participates in a FOX News Channel virtual town hall entitled America Together: Returning to Work, with co-moderators Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum live from the Lincoln Memorial Sunday, May 3, 2020, in Washington, D.C. (Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead)

The Fox News Effect?

Republicans are more partisan—and distrustful of government—than Democrats.

income tax monopoly board income tax monopoly board

Raising Taxes on Other People Very Popular

President Biden’s pollster has made an amazing discovery.

Vaccine Disconnect

Refuseniks are far more confident than those already vaccinated.

Yes, Presidential Approval Matters

An explanation to a question you likely weren’t asking.

Still the Party of Trump

The disgraced loser remains as popular as ever with his base.

We Are Not QAnon Nation

Most Americans have never even heard of it.

What Republicans Want Isn’t What they Get

Our two-party system distorts the representativeness of our politics.

President Donald J. Trump disembarks Marine One at Joint Base Andrews, Md. Friday, Sept. 18, 2020, and is escorted to Air Force One by U.S. Air Force personnel. (Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour) President Donald J. Trump disembarks Marine One at Joint Base Andrews, Md. Friday, Sept. 18, 2020, and is escorted to Air Force One by U.S. Air Force personnel. (Official White House Photo by Tia Dufour)

Trump Wears out his Welcome

So says Pew.

Insecurity-in-Chief

Trump brags about being the “most admired” and provides yet another example of poor understanding of data.

Why the Polls Were Wrong

A myriad of possible explanations.

Facts over Feelings

A reminder that narratives are narratives and data are data.

Public Perceives Biden Legitimately Winning

Some good news for our democracy.

Post-Election National Survey

Some interesting findings from the preeminent Republican polling firm.