Conservative Media Bubble
If you’re a white Southerner who gets most of his information from Fox News and Rush Limbaugh, you probably don’t know a lot of people who voted for Barack Obama.
GOP Unlikely To Grab Senate This Year, But They’ll Have Another Shot In Two Years
The GOP’s hopes of taking over the Senate in 2012 have all but slipped away, but there is another option.
On Election Eve, The Race Is Close But Obama Has The Advantage
The 2012 Election promises to be close in the Popular Voter, but President Obama still retains an Electoral College advantage.
Virginia Now Leans Obama
Democrats Barack Obama and Tim Kaine have gained momentum in Virginia in weekend polling.
Democrats And The White Vote
President Obama is likely to win re-election while overwhelmingly losing the white vote. Does it matter?
2012 Congressional Election Predictions
OTB bloggers give their best guesses on the House and Senate races.
Interpretation, Art, and Analysis
The analyst actually wants to understand and be correct far more than he or she wants their preferences to prevail in the analysis
2012 Presidential Election Predictions
The OTB gang give their best guess at the outcome of the 2012 presidential contest.
Preparing to Evaluate the Predictions
Making note of some of the predictions and such as we approach November 6th.
Previewing Tonight’s Foreign Policy Debate
The candidate’s meet for one last time tonight to talk about some of the most important issues in the world.
2008’s Obama Derangement Syndrome Looks Ridiculous In Hindsight
Let’s take a trip back in time to see what some conservatives thought 2012 would look like if Barack Obama were elected President.
Romney’s Post-Debate Poll Bump
Mitt Romney has gotten a bump in the polls from Wednesday debate, but it’s still too early to say if it means anything.
Judge Blocks Pennsylvania Voter ID Law For 2012 Elections
A victory for opponents of Pennsylvania’s Voter ID law, but likely only a temporary one.
Supreme Court Faces Another Potentially Groundbreaking Term
The Court’s 2012-2013 term begins tomorrow morning, and there are plenty of big cases on the docket.
The Most Serious Aspect of the Poll Denialist Position
Getting to the heart of the problem from my POV (plus historical numbers).
What Happens To The GOP If Romney Loses?
Some Republicans are beginning to ponder what might happen to their party if Mitt Romney loses in 2012.
One Year Later, Study Finds No Harm To Military From DADT Repeal
Not surprisingly, a new study finds that repealing Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell has not caused any harm to the military.
Really, Really Full Disclosure
Jonathan Bernstein didn’t make any predictions about the Wisconsin primary but wants you to know that, if he had, he would have been wrong.
One Year Later, The Debt Downgrade Doesn’t Seem To Have Mattered Very Much
One year ago, the U.S. lost it’s AAA credit rating with S&P. There doesn’t appear to have been any real impact from that decision.
Not Surprisingly, Olympics Mostly A Bust For London Retailers
Once again, we learn that hosting the Olympics doesn’t carry nearly the economic benefit the IOC wants host cities to believe it does.
What The Heck Happened With The Facebook IPO?
It was supposed to be the return of the heady days of the great Tech Industry IPOs. But, things didn’t quite go as planned.
No, Hillary Clinton Is Not Going To Replace Joe Biden As Vice-President
The “Clinton-Biden Switcheroo” Scenario is the pundit’s fantasy that will not die.
Supreme Court Appears Sympathetic To Some Parts Of Arizona Immigration Law
The Solicitor General had another bad day in Court yesterday.
Analysts Say Gas Prices May Have Peaked
Once again, those predictions of $5.00 gas may have been much ado about nothing.
ObamaCare At The Supreme Court, Day Two: The Mandate Under The Microscope
It seems to have been a rough day for the individual mandate at the Supreme Court.
ObamaCare Goes Before The Supreme Court: A Preview
Starting tomorrow morning, the Supreme Court dives into the most significant case that has been before it in many years.
Another Debt Ceiling Debacle Before The Election?
We may have to deal with the debt ceiling again before the November elections.
$4.00 Per Gallon Gas By Spring? Bye Bye Economic Recovery?
Higher gas prices in the spring could have an impact on the economy, and the election.
Last Night Was Ron Paul’s High Point
Last night was the high point of Ron Paul’s 2012 campaign for the Presidency.
Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, And The Pundit’s Fantasy That Will Not Die
Yes, it’s time to talk about that again.
Finally, It’s Caucus Day; Plus, A Prediction
After almost a year of campaigning, it’s finally time for someone to cast a vote.
Debunking Yet Another Obama-Clinton Fantasy, Two of Them Actually
Once again, people are engaging in largely mindless speculation involving Hillary Clinton.
A Futures Market In Election Results?
Could traders soon be betting on the outcome of the Presidential elections? Should they be?
Eurozone Too Big To Save?
“The debt crisis is burrowing ever deeper, like a worm, and is now reaching Germany.”
Electoral College Predictions and False Premises
The Electoral College doesn’t matter in the way pundits think it does.
Calling Out Pundits And Politicians When They’re Wrong
Why do pundits who are consistently wrong keep getting invited to be on television?
Economic Crisis: What Could Government Have Done Better?
With the advantage of hindsight, it’s clear that more creative strategies were needed. But they probably couldn’t have been passed.
Al Gore Places Infant Son In Rocket To Escape Dying Planet
Al Gore Places Infant Son In Rocket To Escape Dying Planet
Obama Re-Election Keys
A political scientist whose formula has correctly picked every presidential winner since 1984 says Barack Obama will be re-elected.
Pawlenty and the Pundit’s Fallacy
America’s pundits have never met anyone who didn’t think Tim Pawlenty would be a good nominee.
Syrian Crackdown Continues, International Options Limited
International options with respect to Syria are limited and likely to have little impact on the governments treatment of civilians.
Iowa Caucuses In December? Our Broken Primary Scheduling System
Once again, the primary scheduling race is getting ridiculous.
